Match Info

BRAZIL: SERIE A - ROUND 18

Date: 6 August 2023, Sunday

Location: Arena Fonte Nova (Salvador)

Referee: Delgado M. (Bra)


	Bahia		América Mineiro

	1	X	2
	1.95	3.6	3.8	Watch
	1.94	3.65	3.8	Watch
	1.97	3.65	4.03
	1.94	3.6	3.78	Watch
	1.93	3.6	3.65
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.95 ↓ (2.12)	3.62 ↑ (3.3)	3.81 ↑ (3.46)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Bahia
48.8%

Draw
26.2%

América Mineiro
24.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

44.3%

28.5%

27.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44.9%

28.1%

26.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Bahia has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.5%)

América Mineiro has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Bahia than the current prediction. (-3.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for América Mineiro than the current prediction. (+1.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
81.8%	13.6%	4.5%

Bahia - América Mineiro Predictions

Users Predictions: Bahia will win (18 of 22 users predict this - 81.82%).
Confidence interval (95%): 65.7% – 97.94%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
22. Marcos Felipe (G) 2. Gilberto 4. Kanu (C) 31. Vitor Hugo 38. Candido C. 8. Cauly 5. Rezende 16. Thaciano 7. Ademir 9. Everaldo 11. Ratao R.	14. Mateus Pasinato (G) 20. Daniel Borges 26. Burgos E. 33. Eder Ferreira 30. Nicolas Vichiatto 8. Juninho (C) 23. Mendez J. 5. Emmanuel Martinez 11. Felipe Azevedo 17. Gonzalo Mastriani 29. Pedrinho
Substitutes
35. Adriel (G) 40. Cicinho 17. Diego Rosa 3. Gabriel Xavier 18. Leo Cittadini 79. Matheus Bahia 26. Nicolas Acevedo 34. Raul Gustavo 66. Ryan Carlos 21. Vinicius Mingotti 29. Vitor Jacare 20. Yago Felipe	16. Ale 18. Cesar J. 37. Everaldo 3. Iago Maidana 21. Lucas Kal 6. Marlon 10. Martin Benitez 1. Matheus Cavichioli (G) 7. Matheusinho 47. Paulinho Boia 75. Rodriguinho 9. Wellington Paulista
Coaches
Alves R.	Mancini V.

Preview

In a match only outsiders will meet (ranked 17 in the zone Relegation ~ Serie B and 19 in the zone Relegation ~ Serie B).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Bahia won 1.

Bahia is in poor shape (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Recent matches América MG is playing unpredictable (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Bahia could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Recently Bahia have a series of guest games.

Bahia will have a small advantage in this match.

There will not play in Bahia: Biel (Injury) Danilo Fernandes (Injury) David Duarte (Injury) Kayky (Injury) Leo Cittadini (Injury)

There will not play in América MG: Adyson (Injury) Dada Belmonte (Injury) Danilo Avelar (Injury) Ricardo Silva (Injury)

Last 10 head-to-head matches Bahia won 2 matches, drawn 5 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 8-9.

Including matches at home between the teams Bahia won 2 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 7-7.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- EC Bahia
Brazilian Serie A
30.07.23	São Paulo - Bahia	0:0 ✺
22.07.23	Bahia - Corinthians	0:0 ✺
16.07.23	Athletico Paranaense - Bahia	2:0 ✺
Copa do Brasil
12.07.23	Grêmio - Bahia	2:1 penalties ✺
Brazilian Serie A
08.07.23	Cuiabá - Bahia	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.1 TTLLT
- América Mineiro
Copa Sudamericana
03.08.23	América Mineiro - Red Bull Bragantino	1:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
30.07.23	América Mineiro - Palmeiras	1:4 ✺
22.07.23	Flamengo - América Mineiro	1:1 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
18.07.23	América Mineiro - Colo-Colo	5:1 ✺
Copa do Brasil
15.07.23	Corinthians - América Mineiro	4:2 penalties ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11 TLTWL

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie A
16.10.21	América Mineiro - Bahia	0:0
30.06.21	Bahia - América Mineiro	3:4
25.11.18	América Mineiro - Bahia	1:0
11.08.18	Bahia - América Mineiro	1:0
Copa do Brasil
18.05.16	Bahia - América Mineiro	0:1
11.05.16	América Mineiro - Bahia	0:0
Brazilian Serie B
22.08.15	Bahia - América Mineiro	1:1

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