Match Info

Serie A Betano - Round 15

Date: 19 July 2025, Saturday

Location: Estadio Do MorumBIS (Sao Paulo)

Referee: Daronco A. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Amazon Prime Video, Claro TV+, Globoplay, Premiere, Sky+, SporTV, Vivo Play, Zapping
China	K-Ball
Ecuador	El Canal del Futbol app, El Canal del Futbol
Germany	Sportdigital FUSSBALL
Portugal	Canal 11
Russia	MATCH! Futbol 3, Match TV, Sportbox.ru
Switzerland	Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV


	São Paulo		Corinthians

	1	X	2
	2.15	2.8	3.75	Watch
	2.4	2.9	3.4
	2.38	2.82	3.4
	2.27	2.87	4.15
	2.27	2.70	3.96	Watch
	2.4	2.75	3.5
	2.46	2.77	3.65	Watch
	2.33	3.05	3.3
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.33 (2.33)	2.83 ↓ (3.05)	3.64 ↑ (3.3)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.75

The best margin for this event is 3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

São Paulo
40.6%

Draw
33.4%

Corinthians
26%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

40.5%

30.9%

28.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

42.9%

32.7%

27%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

São Paulo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.1%)

Corinthians has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for São Paulo than the current prediction. (+2.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Corinthians than the current prediction. (+1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
41.2%	41.2%	17.6%

São Paulo - Corinthians Predictions

Users Predictions: 16 users predict this event. São Paulo will win (votes: 6 - 37.5%). Corinthians will win (votes: 3 - 18.8%). It will Tie (votes: 7 - 43.8%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 19.5% – 68.1%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 6 Selected Experts predict this event. Corinthians (votes: 3 - 50%). Tie (votes: 3 - 50%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2 - over (votes: 3 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

BTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
23. Rafael (G) 32. Ferraresi N. 5. Robert Arboleda 28. Franco A. 6. Soares C. 20. Marcos Antonio 21. Bobadilla D. 8. Oscar 13. Diaz E. 10. Luciano 17. Andre Silva	1. Hugo Souza (G) 3. Torres F. 5. Andre Ramalho 25. Caca 21. Matheus Bidu 19. Carrillo A. 27. Breno Bidon 70. Martinez J. 8. Garro R. 11. Angel Romero (C) 10. Depay M.
Substitutes
25. Alisson 19. Dinenno J. 43. Felipe Negrucci 11. Ferreira 93. Jandrei (G) 33. Luan Silva 48. Lucas Ferreira 29. Pablo Maia 15. Rodriguinho 35. Sabino 14. Tapia G. 18. Wendell	26. Angileri F. 35. Charles Rigon 61. Dieguinho 40. Felipe Longo (G) 56. Gui Negao 13. Gustavo Henrique 22. Hernandez H. 47. Joao Pedro 31. Kayke 33. Leo Mana 14. Raniele 43. Talles Magno
Coaches
Crespo H.	Dorival Junior

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
16', Oscar ↓, Alisson ↑,
32', 1 - 0, Luciano ⚽, Andre Silva (A),
35', 2 - 0, Luciano ⚽, Wendell (A),
37', Alisson 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Depay M. ↓, Gui Negao ↑,
46', Martinez J. ↓, Raniele ↑,
46', Torres F. ↓, Leo Mana ↑,
53', Raniele 🟨,
66', Matheus Bidu ↓, Angileri F. ↑,
67', Carrillo A. ↓, Talles Magno ↑,
72', Bobadilla D. ↓, Pablo Maia ↑,
72', Andre Silva ↓, Ferreira ↑,
79', Luciano ↓, Tapia G. ↑,
79', Franco A. ↓, Sabino ↑,
83', Garro R. 🟨,
90+1', Tapia G. 🟨,

Preview

An outsider and a mid-table team will play in this game (ranked 16 and 9 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, São Paulo won 4.

São Paulo is currently in poor form (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Corinthians's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

São Paulo could have a small edge in this match.

There will not play in São Paulo: Jonathan Calleri (Knee Injury) Lucas Moura (Knee Injury) Luiz Gustavo (Contusion) Ryan Francisco (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Corinthians: Gustavo Henrique (Inactive) Hugo (Inactive) Matheuzinho (Yellow Cards) Ryan (Inactive) Yuri Alberto (Back Injury)

There are questionable in Corinthians: Maycon (Injury) Talles Magno (Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, São Paulo won 10 matches, drew 7 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 28:18. (average 1.4:0.9).

Including home matches between the teams, São Paulo won 9 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 19:8. (average 1.6:0.7).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- São Paulo FC
Brazilian Serie A
16.07.25	Red Bull Bragantino - São Paulo	2:2 ✺
12.07.25	Flamengo - São Paulo	2:0 ✺
12.06.25	São Paulo - Vasco da Gama	1:3 ✺
31.05.25	Bahia - São Paulo	2:1 ✺
Copa Libertadores
27.05.25	São Paulo - Talleres de Córdoba	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.3 TLLLW
- Corinthians
Brazilian Serie A
16.07.25	Ceará - Corinthians	0:1 ✺
13.07.25	Corinthians - Red Bull Bragantino	1:2 ✺
12.06.25	Grêmio - Corinthians	1:1 ✺
01.06.25	Corinthians - Vitória Salvador	0:0 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
27.05.25	Huracán Buenos Aires - Corinthians	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.7 WLTTL

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Campeonato Paulista
26.01.25	São Paulo - Corinthians	3:1
Brazilian Serie A
29.09.24	São Paulo - Corinthians	3:1
16.06.24	Corinthians - São Paulo	2:2
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista
30.01.24	Corinthians - São Paulo	1:2
Brazilian Serie A
30.09.23	São Paulo - Corinthians	2:1
Copa do Brasil
16.08.23	São Paulo - Corinthians	2:0
25.07.23	Corinthians - São Paulo	2:1

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