Match Info

Liga Portugal 2 - Round 6

Date: 13 September 2026, Sunday

Location: Amarante Stadium (Amarante)

Referee: Rodrigues A. (Por)

Where to Watch on TV:


Usa	SportsEngine Play


	Amarante		Leiria

	1	X	2
	3.3	2.9	2.1
	3.25	2.95	2.10
	3.35	3.05	2.15
	3.7	3.24	2.25
	3.21	3.19	2.28	Watch
	3.6	3.2	2.13
	3.47	3.05	2.21	Watch
	3.3	3.05	2.15
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.4 ↑ (2.83)	3.08 ↓ (3.16)	2.17 ↓ (2.49)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 2.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Amarante
27.3%

Draw
30.1%

Leiria
42.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

33%

29.5%

37.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

32.3%

28.9%

38.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Amarante has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Amarante's form might have worsened.

Leiria has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Leiria's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Amarante than the current prediction. (+5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Leiria than the current prediction. (-4.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
20%	60%	20%

Amarante - Leiria Predictions

Users Predictions: 5 users predict this event. Amarante will win (votes: 1 - 20%). Leiria will win (votes: 1 - 20%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 60%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
65. Didi (G) 3. Mendes F. 4. Filipe J. (C) 2. Cunha G. 28. Pereira D. 26. Zangre A. 8. Tokinho Doria 36. Ian Custodio 78. Silva R. 10. Costa M. 20. Machado L.	99. Odehnal J. (G) 68. Maga 44. Marcelo 16. Ze Pedro 70. Masaki H. 21. Jaiminho 19. Lottin A. 98. Guirassy 17. Fernandez P. 7. Ondo N. 9. Munoz J. (C)
Substitutes
91. Almeida R. 88. Alves R. 14. Arome 15. Beirao R. 9. Cardoso F. 51. Fernandes D. (G) 1. Flores R. (G) 6. Guedes R. 23. Ikugar K. 5. Joao Ricardo 12. Lawrence 85. Nito	25. Amado D. 42. Caturra T. 11. Jair da Silva 80. Joel C. (G) 6. Kouassi E. 29. Loppy D. 88. Martins D. 5. Nobrega M. 82. Ntanda S. 79. Oliveira P. 8. Reko 18. Tharlley
Coaches
Pinto J.	Pereira F.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
4', Lottin A. ↓, Tharlley ↑,
23', Ian Custodio 🟨,
41', Mendes F. 🟥,
45+1', 1 - 0, Silva R. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 2)
46', Ondo N. ↓, Loppy D. ↑,
46', Tharlley ↓, Martins D. ↑,
46', Ian Custodio ↓, Joao Ricardo ↑,
51', 1 - 1, Munoz J. ⚽,
62', Costa M. ↓, Arome ↑,
62', Silva B. ↓, Nito ↑,
69', Jaiminho ↓, Jair da Silva ↑,
75', Fernandez P. ↓, Ntanda S. ↑,
80', 1 - 2, Jair da Silva ⚽,
82', 2 - 2, Cunha G. ⚽,
90', Machado L. ↓, Beirao R. ↑,
90+5', Zangre A. ↓, Guedes R. ↑,
90+6', Guedes R. 🟨,

Preview

The game between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 15 and 7).

Amarante is going through a rough patch (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Leiria's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Amarante may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

The teams have not played against each other recently.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
7	Leiria	6	3	1	2	10:7	3	10
15	Amarante	6	1	2	3	5:8	-3	5

Last Results with these Odds

Amarante - the odds 2.83 are the expected chance of winning is 32.98%, but this team recently wins 71% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Amarante FC
Portuguese Liga 2
06.09.26	Leixões - Amarante	3:1 ✺
30.08.26	Amarante - Benfica B	1:0 ✺
22.08.26	Vizela - Amarante	0:0 ✺
16.08.26	Amarante - Lusitânia	0:1 ✺
08.08.26	Tondela - Amarante	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.8 LWTLL
- UD Leiria
Portuguese Liga 2
06.09.26	Leiria - Portimonense	1:0 ✺
28.08.26	Leiria - Tondela	2:0 ✺
22.08.26	Leixões - Leiria	2:4 ✺
15.08.26	Leiria - Benfica B	1:2 ✺
09.08.26	Vizela - Leiria	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.7 WWWLL

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