Match Info

Serie B Superbet - Round 29

Date: 29 September 2025, Monday

Location: Estádio Municipal Carlos Zamith (Manaus)

Referee: Sampaio S. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Disney+


	Amazonas		Chapecoense

	1	X	2
	2.55	3.1	2.7	Watch
	2.58	2.98	2.78
	2.71	3	2.98
	4.60	3.75	1.71	Watch
	2.65	3	2.9	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.02 ↑ (2.48)	3.17 ↓ (3.25)	2.61 ↓ (2.67)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 3.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Amazonas
32.2%

Draw
30.7%

Chapecoense
37.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

37.2%

28.3%

34.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

35.1%

26.7%

36.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Amazonas has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5%)

Chapecoense has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Amazonas than the current prediction. (+2.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Chapecoense than the current prediction. (-0.6%)

Amazonas - Chapecoense Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Chapecoense (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 3.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Ze Carlos (G) 15. Akapo C. 4. Iverton 14. Ivan Alvarino 3. Leo Coelho 35. Rafael Monteiro 10. Rafael Tavares 21. Erick Varao 11. Torres J. 7. Ramirez K. 19. Henrique Almeida (C)	1. Rafael Santos (G) 3. Eduardo Doma 33. Bruno Leonardo (C) 4. Joao Paulo 37. Clar W. 5. Jorge Jimenez 19. David Antunes 99. Rafael Carvalheira 10. Giovanni Augusto 7. Marcinho 18. Neto Pessoa
Substitutes
30. Castrillon N. 26. Gabriel Domingos 17. Guilherme Xavier 57. Ibarguen J. C. 77. Kiko 9. Luan Silva 33. Pedro Caracoci (G) 55. Philippe Guimaraes 93. Rafael Vitor 13. Rojas H. 29. Torres D. 8. Zabala D.	27. Eduardo Person 26. Everton 76. Felipe Vieira 20. Gustavo Talles 77. Italo 32. Jhonnathan 12. Leo Vieira (G) 90. Mailson 95. Marcinho 48. Pedro Martins 9. Pedro Perotti
Coaches
Marcio Zanardi	Gilmar Pozzo

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
6', Leo Coelho 🟨,
7', 0 - 1, Eduardo Doma ⚽, Rafael Carvalheira (A),
20', Leo Coelho ↓, Luan Silva ↑,
45+3', 1 - 1, Ramirez K. ⚽, Rafael Monteiro (A),
2nd Half (0 - 2)
58', Torres J. ↓, Gabriel Domingos ↑,
58', Erick Varao ↓, Torres D. ↑,
59', David Antunes 🟨,
63', Marcinho ↓, Italo ↑,
64', David Antunes ↓, Everton ↑,
68', Akapo C. ↓, Castrillon N. ↑,
68', Rafael Tavares ↓, Rojas H. ↑,
70', Jorge Jimenez ↓, Pedro Martins ↑,
74', Bruno Leonardo 🟨,
76', Giovanni Augusto ↓, Marcinho ↑,
76', Neto Pessoa ↓, Pedro Perotti ↑,
84', 1 - 2, Everton ⚽, Bruno Leonardo (A),
90', Everton 🟨,
90+1', Rafael Santos 🟨,
90+2', 1 - 3, Rafael Carvalheira ⚽, Marcinho (A),
90+6', Iverton 🟨,

Preview

A mid-table team and an outsider will play in this match (ranked 19 in the zone Relegation ~ Serie C (First stage: ) and 8).

Amazonas has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Chapecoense is going through a series of losses (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Amazonas may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Chapecoense has had a series of home games.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Amazonas won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 0:7. (average 0:2.3).

Including home match between the teams, Amazonas won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:1.

Last Results with these Odds

Chapecoense - the odds 2.67 are the expected chance of winning is 34.52%, but this team recently wins 21% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Amazonas FC
Brazilian Serie B
24.09.25	Operário Ferroviario - Amazonas	2:1 ✺
20.09.25	Amazonas - Volta Redonda	1:0 ✺
15.09.25	CRB Maceio - Amazonas	2:0 ✺
05.09.25	Amazonas - Remo	1:3 ✺
31.08.25	Atlético Goianiense - Amazonas	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.3 LWLLL
- Chapecoense-SC
Brazilian Copa Santa Catarina
28.09.25	Chapecoense - Santa Catarina	0:3 ✺
Brazilian Serie B
25.09.25	Chapecoense - Avaí	0:1 ✺
21.09.25	Cuiabá - Chapecoense	1:0 ✺
Brazilian Copa Santa Catarina
17.09.25	Chapecoense - Brusque	0:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie B
16.09.25	Chapecoense - Athletico Paranaense	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1 LLLTL

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie B
02.06.25	Chapecoense - Amazonas	4:0
26.09.24	Chapecoense - Amazonas	2:0
13.06.24	Amazonas - Chapecoense	0:1

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