Match Info

Catarinense - Play Offs - Semi-finals

Date: 22 February 2026, Sunday

Location: Arena Condá (Chapecó)


	Chapecoense		Brusque

	1	X	2
				Watch
	1.51	3.4	5.09
	1.68	3.43	5.5	Watch
	1.67	3.1	5
	1.66	3.28	5.19
	1.53	3.6	5.75
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.61 ↑ (1.51)	3.36 ↓ (3.55)	5.31 ↓ (6.29)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 6.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Chapecoense
56.1%

Draw
26.9%

Brusque
17%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

60.1%

25.5%

14.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

61.8%

26.2%

14%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Chapecoense has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4%)

Brusque has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Chapecoense than the current prediction. (+5.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Chapecoense, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Brusque than the current prediction. (-3%)

Chapecoense - Brusque Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Leo Vieira (G) 33. Bruno Leonardo (C) 27. Camilo Reijers 37. Clar W. 3. Eduardo Doma 77. Italo 20. Jean Carlos 7. Marcinho 18. Neto Pessoa 99. Rafael Carvalheira 25. Victor Caetano	1. Matheus Nogueira (G) 3. Alisson Cassiano (C) 5. Bernardo 11. Clinton 7. Gazao 20. Joao Prado 2. Leonardo Ataide 21. Luizao 4. Rafael Milhorim 6. Raimar 14. Ryan Santos
Substitutes
91. Bruno Pacheco 19. David Antunes 22. Higor Meritao 5. Joao Vitor 21. Kauan 90. Mailson 2. Marcos Vinicius 9. Pedro Perotti 1. Rafael Santos (G) 70. Rubens Ricoldi 35. Vinicius Eduardo 32. Wellington (G)	15. Alex Paulino 22. Italo Lucas 16. Joao Felix 18. Joao Pedro 10. Joao Pedro 23. Jose Vinicius (G) 24. Leonardo 12. Paulo Gianezini (G) 19. Petterson Novaes 13. Salas M.
Coaches
Gilmar Pozzo	Higo

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
24', Joao Prado 🟨,
38', Ryan Santos 🟥,
42', Luizao ↓, Alex Paulino ↑,
45+1', 1 - 0, Jean Carlos ⚽,
45+4', 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
46', Joao Prado ↓, Salas M. ↑,
51', 2 - 0, Clar W. ⚽,
56', Clar W. 🟨,
60', Victor Caetano ↓, Marcos Vinicius ↑,
61', Neto Pessoa ↓, Pedro Perotti ↑,
62', Raimar ↓, Petterson Novaes ↑,
62', Leonardo Ataide ↓, Joao Felix ↑,
63', Alex Paulino 🟨,
69', Italo ↓, Rubens Ricoldi ↑,
73', Alisson Cassiano 🟨,
75', Gazao ↓, Alvaro ↑,
84', 🟨,
86', Camilo Reijers ↓, Joao Vitor ↑,
86', Jean Carlos ↓, Higor Meritao ↑,
90+6', 3 - 0, Higor Meritao ⚽,
90+8', 🟨,

Preview

First leg result: 0-1. Second leg.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Chapecoense won 1.

In recent matches, Chapecoense has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Brusque is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Brusque may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Chapecoense is the team to beat.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Chapecoense won 8 matches, drew 9 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 19:13. (average 1:0.7).

Including home matches between the teams, Chapecoense won 3 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 8:6. (average 0.8:0.6).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Chapecoense-SC
Brazilian Campeonato Catarinense
14.02.26	Brusque - Chapecoense	1:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
11.02.26	Chapecoense - Coritiba	3:3 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Catarinense
08.02.26	Chapecoense - Criciúma	0:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
05.02.26	Vasco da Gama - Chapecoense	1:1 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Catarinense
01.02.26	Criciúma - Chapecoense	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.2 LTTTW
- Brusque FC
Brazilian Campeonato Catarinense
14.02.26	Brusque - Chapecoense	1:0 ✺
07.02.26	Brusque - Concórdia	2:1 penalties ✺
01.02.26	Concórdia - Brusque	0:0 ✺
25.01.26	Criciúma - Brusque	3:3 ✺
21.01.26	Brusque - Santa Catarina	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.9 WWTTT

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Campeonato Catarinense
14.02.26	Brusque - Chapecoense	1:0
06.01.26	Chapecoense - Brusque	1:1
Brazilian Copa Santa Catarina
06.10.25	Brusque - Chapecoense	1:1
17.09.25	Chapecoense - Brusque	0:0
Brazilian Campeonato Catarinense
01.03.25	Brusque - Chapecoense	0:1 penalties
22.01.25	Brusque - Chapecoense	1:2
Brazilian Serie B
29.10.24	Brusque - Chapecoense	0:1

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