Match Info

PORTUGAL: LIGA 3 - ROUND 18

Date: 27 January 2024, Saturday


	Amora		Alverca

	1	X	2
	6	4.1	1.42	Watch
	7.5	4.33	1.36
	5.6	4.05	1.43
	5.95	4.58	1.51
	7.65	4.33	1.36
	6.2	4.1	1.43
Avarage Now (Initially)	6.48 ↑ (4.53)	4.25 ↑ (3.5)	1.42 ↓ (1.62)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 4.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Amora
14.1%

Draw
21.5%

Alverca
64.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

19.6%

25.4%

54.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

18.9%

24.6%

56.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Amora has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Amora's form might have worsened.

Alverca has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Alverca's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Amora than the current prediction. (+4.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Alverca than the current prediction. (-7.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Alverca, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
16.7%	0%	83.3%

Amora - Alverca Predictions

Users Predictions: Alverca will win (5 of 6 users predict this - 83.33%).
Confidence interval (95%): 53.51% – 100%.

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
96. Rendeiro R. (G) 24. Gata Z. 2. Glorias Tavares G. A. 70. Lapas Montenegro L. M. 34. Marques P. 92. Matias Mariano 29. Rodrigues Oliveira F. W. 99. Sidney C. 77. Silva M. 3. Sousa J. 22. Toni	98. Joao Bravim (G) 17. Costa J. 28. Hachadi K. 18. Jesus P. 15. Lucas J. 4. Oliveira A. 35. Pedro Bicalho 8. Pinto G. 19. Silva R. 14. Varela J. 33. Venaque (C)
Substitutes
45. Batalha G. 21. Cerejo L. 13. Costa H. 17. Evora M. 11. Junior M. 6. Maio F. 9. Oliveira J. 12. Santana C. (G) 27. Sousa V.	9. Freitas R. 44. Gomes C. 22. Hidalgo N. (G) 6. Luiz Miguel 25. Rodrigues R. 20. Salomao D. 11. Vitinho 90. Vitor Bruno 5. Ze Oliveira

Preview

A team from the mid-table and an outsider will play in this match (ranked 8 in the zone Liga 3 (Relegation Group: ) and 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga 3 (Promotion Group: )).

Amora is Liga 3 (Relegation Group )

Last 5 head-to-head matches Amora won 1.

Recent matches Amora is playing shaky (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Alverca is in a first-rate shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Alverca could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match Alverca is a favorite.

Last 7 head-to-head matches Amora won 1 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 5 matches and goals 8-13.

Including matches at home between the teams Amora won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 3-7.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Amora FC
Portuguese Liga 3
21.01.24	1 Dezembro - Amora	0:0 ✺
17.01.24	Covilhã - Amora	2:0 ✺
13.01.24	Amora - Atlético CP	1:1 ✺
17.12.23	Amora - Pero Pinheiro	3:0 ✺
10.12.23	Caldas - Amora	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.9 TLTWT
- FC Alverca
Portuguese Liga 3
20.01.24	Alverca - Sporting Lisbon B	1:0 ✺
13.01.24	Alverca - 1 Dezembro	2:0 ✺
07.01.24	Atlético CP - Alverca	3:1 ✺
16.12.23	Alverca - Covilhã	2:2 ✺
09.12.23	Pero Pinheiro - Alverca	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7 WWLTW

Latest Head to Head

Portuguese Liga 3
27.10.23	Alverca - Amora	1:0
17.12.22	Alverca - Amora	1:1
20.08.22	Amora - Alverca	2:3
02.02.22	Amora - Alverca	1:2
10.10.21	Alverca - Amora	2:3
Campeonato de Portugal - Group B
02.02.20	Alverca - Amora	2:1
01.09.19	Amora - Alverca	0:2

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