Match Info

Serie B - Round 22

Date: 16 August 2026, Sunday

Location: Mineirão (Belo Horizonte)

Referee: do Nascimento W. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Mexico	Disney+
Usa	SportsEngine Play


	América Mineiro		Athletic Club

	1	X	2
	2.45	3	3	Watch
	2.37	2.87	3.00
	2.4	2.85	3.1	Watch
	2.51	2.99	3.33
	2.46	2.93	3.17
	2.45	2.9	3.25
	2.44	2.88	3.17	Watch
	2.41	2.9	3.1
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.44 ↑ (2.17)	2.92 ↓ (2.99)	3.14 ↓ (3.53)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.75

The best margin for this event is 3.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

América Mineiro
38.3%

Draw
32%

Athletic Club
29.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

42.7%

31%

26.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.9%

31.8%

25.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

América Mineiro has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.4%)

Athletic Club has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for América Mineiro than the current prediction. (+5.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for América Mineiro, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Athletic Club than the current prediction. (-4.1%)

América Mineiro - Athletic Club Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Gustavo (G) 15. Alex Silva 45. Ricardo Silva (C) 3. Sosa L. 29. Dalbert 8. Felipe Amaral 14. Pineiro R. 10. Yago Souza 20. Paulo Victor 7. Guilherme Parede 9. Willian Bigode	1. Luan Polli (G) 3. Jhonatan Silva 4. Belezi 19. Pool J. 6. Zeca (C) 15. Jota 16. Joao Miguel 23. Enzo Santos 17. Kauan Rodrigues 9. Carlinhos 11. Max
Substitutes
5. Elizari F. 31. Fabio 32. Filipe Dahora 11. Gabriel Barros 17. Gonzalo Mastriani 88. Gustavo Barreto 39. Italo G. 93. Jorge Jimenez 26. Manoel 25. Ostchega T. 4. Rafa Barcelos 19. William (G)	20. Aponza W. 22. Assis 7. Bruninho 8. Cabezas G. 2. Douglas Pele 13. Felipe Vieira 10. Gustavinho 5. Kauan Lindes 14. Marcelo Henrique 12. Tony (G) 21. Vera D. 18. Yago Santos
Coaches
Umberto Louzer	Alex Souza

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
45', 0 - 1, Kauan Rodrigues ⚽, Max (A),
2nd Half (1 - 2)
52', 0 - 2, Sosa L. (Own goal),
56', Enzo Santos 🟨,
57', Yago Souza ↓, Jorge Jimenez ↑,
57', Felipe Amaral ↓, Gustavo Barreto ↑,
58', Zeca ↓, Douglas Pele ↑,
58', Douglas Pele 🟨,
66', 0 - 3, Carlinhos ⚽, Jota (A),
68', Willian Bigode ↓, Gonzalo Mastriani ↑,
69', Pineiro R. ↓, Italo G. ↑,
73', Enzo Santos ↓, Marcelo Henrique ↑,
73', Jota ↓, Yago Santos ↑,
73', Carlinhos ↓, Gustavinho ↑,
78', Gustavo Barreto 🟨,
79', Max ↓, Assis ↑,
84', Alex Silva ↓, Fabio ↑,
86', 1 - 3, Gonzalo Mastriani ⚽, Guilherme Parede (A),

Preview

The game between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 19 in the zone Relegation ~ Serie C (First stage: ) and 11).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, América MG won 2.

Recent performances by América MG have been up and down (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Athletic is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Athletic may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

América MG will hold a modest advantage in this match.

There will not play in América MG: Ale (Injury) Cassio Meneses (Knee Injury) Emerson Santos (Injury) Fabio (Injury) Segovia M. (Inactive)

There will not play in Athletic: Diogo Batista (Yellow Cards) Rodrigo Gelado (Injury) Sidimar (Injury) Tavares R. (Injury)

There are questionable in América MG: Gabriel Domingos (Inactive) Wesley (Muscle Injury)

In the last 7 head-to-head matches, América MG won 3 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 9:4. (average 1.3:0.6).

Including home matches between the teams, América MG won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 4:2. (average 1.3:0.7).

Outrights of Brazilian Serie B for now

Athletic Club: 0.3%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
14	Athletic Club	32	10	12	10	38:37	1	42
19	America MG ✔	32	4	5	23	21:53	-32	17

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- América Mineiro
Brazilian Serie B
08.08.26	Botafogo SP - América Mineiro	2:1 ✺
26.07.26	América Mineiro - Goiás	1:0 ✺
21.07.26	Avaí - América Mineiro	2:1 ✺
17.07.26	América Mineiro - Ceará	1:1 ✺
13.07.26	América Mineiro - Londrina	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.4 LWLTT
- Athletic Club MG
Brazilian Serie B
09.08.26	Athletic Club - Criciúma	2:0 ✺
28.07.26	Ponte Preta - Athletic Club	1:1 ✺
23.07.26	Athletic Club - São Bernardo	2:1 ✺
18.07.26	Atlético Goianiense - Athletic Club	0:0 ✺
13.07.26	Ceará - Athletic Club	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.8 WTWTT

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie B
05.04.26	Athletic Club - América Mineiro	1:1
Brazilian Campeonato Mineiro
11.01.26	América Mineiro - Athletic Club	3:0
Brazilian Serie B
25.10.25	Athletic Club - América Mineiro	0:2
07.07.25	América Mineiro - Athletic Club	0:1
Brazilian Campeonato Mineiro
07.02.23	Athletic Club - América Mineiro	1:1
05.02.22	América Mineiro - Athletic Club	1:1
03.03.21	Athletic Club - América Mineiro	0:1

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