Match Info

Serie B - Round 20

Date: 28 July 2026, Tuesday

Location: Estádio Moisés Lucarelli (Campinas)

Referee: Bauermann G. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Disney+
Usa	SportsEngine Play


	Ponte Preta		Athletic Club

	1	X	2
	3.70	3.10	2.05	Watch
	3.60	3.00	2.05
	3.75	3.15	2.05	Watch
	3.86	3.28	2.15
	3.86	3.15	2.05	Watch
	3.95	3.25	2.03
	3.89	3.10	2.04	Watch
	3.75	3.10	2.06
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.8 ↑ (3.65)	3.14 ↓ (3.25)	2.06 ↑ (2.04)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 2.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ponte Preta
24.7%

Draw
29.8%

Athletic Club
45.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

25.6%

28.7%

45.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

28.1%

26.1%

41.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ponte Preta has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.9%)

Athletic Club has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ponte Preta than the current prediction. (+3.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Athletic Club than the current prediction. (-3.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
20%	10%	70%

Ponte Preta - Athletic Club Predictions

Users Predictions: 10 users predict this event. Ponte Preta will win (votes: 2 - 20%). Athletic will win (votes: 7 - 70%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 10%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Athletic: 41.6% – 98.4%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
30. Vinicius Ferrari (G) 23. Palacios S. 3. Lucas Cunha 14. Danilo Barcelos (C) 2. Julio 16. Leo Gomes 8. Andre Lima 13. Diego Porfirio 32. Kevyson 10. Elvis 18. David da Hora	1. Luan Polli (G) 22. Diogo Batista 3. Jhonatan Silva (C) 19. Pool J. 23. Enzo Santos 16. Joao Miguel 11. Max 8. Cabezas G. 5. Ian Luccas 17. Kauan Rodrigues 9. Carlinhos
Substitutes
1. Guilherme Viana (G) 4. Gustavo Almeida 35. Gustavo Telles 9. Joao Damiao 6. Juan Rodrigues 17. Miguel Morais 7. Nicolas Araujo 5. Rodrigo Souza	20. Aponza W. 4. Belezi 2. Douglas Pele 13. Felipe Negrucci 12. Glauco (G) 15. Jota 14. Marcelo Henrique 18. Pedro Oliveira 21. Vera D. 7. Yarlen 6. Zeca
Coaches
Marcio Zanardi	Alex Souza

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
5', Max 🟨,
20', Lucas Cunha 🟨,
21', 1 - 0, Leo Gomes ⚽, Elvis (A),
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Cabezas G. ↓, Aponza W. ↑,
49', Diogo Batista 🟨,
54', Diogo Batista ↓, Douglas Pele ↑,
58', Diego Porfirio 🟨,
60', Pool J. ↓, Felipe Negrucci ↑,
67', 1 - 1, Ian Luccas (Penalty Awarded),
67', David da Hora ↓, Miguel Morais ↑,
69', Jhonatan Silva 🟨,
69', Max ↓, Yarlen ↑,
70', Carlinhos ↓, Vera D. ↑,
76', Diego Porfirio ↓, Nicolas Araujo ↑,
83', Vera D. 🟨,
83', Julio 🟨,
85', Andre Lima 🟨,
86', Ian Luccas 🟨,
87', Leo Gomes ↓, Joao Damiao ↑,
87', Danilo Barcelos ↓, Rodrigo Souza ↑,

Preview

A mid-table team and an outsider will play in this match (ranked 20 in the zone Relegation ~ Serie C (First stage: ) and 12).

Ponte Preta is on a losing streak (last 5 games: 0 wins).

In recent matches, Athletic has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Athletic will hold a modest advantage in this match.

There will not play in Ponte Preta: Baianinho (Yellow Cards) Brandao (Red Card) Murilo (Injury)

There will not play in Athletic: Rodrigo Gelado (Injury) Sidimar (Injury) Tavares R. (Inactive)

There are questionable in Ponte Preta: Rodrigo Souza (Injury) Thalys (Inactive)

We predict that Athletic will win today's game, with odds of 2.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Ponte Preta won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 1:2.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
14	Athletic Club	32	10	12	10	38:37	1	42
20	Ponte Preta ✔	32	3	4	25	17:68	-51	13

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- AA Ponte Preta
Brazilian Serie B
22.07.26	Operário Ferroviario - Ponte Preta	3:2 ✺
18.07.26	Ponte Preta - Goiás	1:2 ✺
08.07.26	Ponte Preta - Criciúma	1:2 ✺
02.07.26	Fortaleza - Ponte Preta	2:0 ✺
28.06.26	Atlético Goianiense - Ponte Preta	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLLLL
- Athletic Club MG
Brazilian Serie B
23.07.26	Athletic Club - São Bernardo	2:1 ✺
18.07.26	Atlético Goianiense - Athletic Club	0:0 ✺
13.07.26	Ceará - Athletic Club	0:0 ✺
07.07.26	Athletic Club - Operário Ferroviario	0:1 ✺
28.06.26	Athletic Club - Avaí	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.3 WTTLW

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie B
22.03.26	Athletic Club - Ponte Preta	2:1

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