Match Info

Serie B - Round 18

Date: 17 July 2026, Friday

Location: Mineirão (Belo Horizonte)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Disney+
Usa	SportsEngine Play


	América Mineiro		Ceará

	1	X	2
	2.55	3	2.85	Watch
	2.37	2.95	2.95
	2.45	2.92	2.98	Watch
	2.63	3.06	3.09
	2.5	2.92	3.11
	2.5	3.05	3.05
	2.58	2.98	2.88	Watch
	2.47	2.95	3
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.51 ↓ (2.6)	2.98 ↓ (3.15)	2.99 ↑ (2.7)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 3.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

América Mineiro
37.3%

Draw
31.4%

Ceará
31.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

35.9%

29.6%

34.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

36.7%

29%

33.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

América Mineiro has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.4%)

Ceará has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for América Mineiro than the current prediction. (-0.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ceará than the current prediction. (+2.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	83.3%	16.7%

América Mineiro - Ceará Predictions

Users Predictions: 6 users predict this event. Ceará will win (votes: 1 - 16.7%). It will Tie (votes: 5 - 83.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Gustavo (G) 15. Alex Silva 45. Ricardo Silva (C) 26. Manoel 29. Dalbert 8. Felipe Amaral 77. Segovia M. 20. Paulo Victor 10. Yago Souza 11. Gabriel Barros 7. Guilherme Parede	1. Richard (G) 31. Bryan Borges 33. Eder 18. Julio Cesar 12. Sanchez 26. Richardson (C) 11. Lucas Mugni 81. Joao Gabriel 40. Melk 99. Lucca 35. Giulio
Substitutes
5. Elizari F. 6. Gabriel Domingos 17. Gonzalo Mastriani 39. Italo G. 42. Jhonny 93. Jorge Jimenez 37. Julio Cesar 30. Montes L. 61. Oliveira G. 4. Rafa Barcelos 38. Rodrigues M. 19. William (G)	94. Bruno Ferreira (G) 88. Caio 60. Enzo Lodovico 71. Gabriel Rocha 21. Giovanni Pavani 10. Juan Alano 7. Lopez R. 13. Luiz Otavio 8. Matheus Araujo 6. Savio 29. Vina
Coaches
Umberto Louzer	Daniel Paulista

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Richardson ↓, Giovanni Pavani ↑,
47', Eder 🟨,
56', Ricardo Silva ↓, Rafa Barcelos ↑,
65', Lucca ↓, Lopez R. ↑,
67', 1 - 0, Segovia M. ⚽, Paulo Victor (A),
69', Joao Gabriel ↓, Vina ↑,
69', Melk ↓, Enzo Lodovico ↑,
71', Bryan Borges 🟨,
73', Gustavo 🟨,
79', Yago Souza ↓, Jorge Jimenez ↑,
80', Paulo Victor ↓, Gonzalo Mastriani ↑,
80', Lucas Mugni ↓, Juan Alano ↑,
88', Rafa Barcelos 🟨,
89', 1 - 1, Vina ⚽,
90', Alex Silva 🟨,
90+2', Segovia M. ↓, Julio Cesar ↑,
90+2', Guilherme Parede ↓, Italo G. ↑,
90+5', Lopez R. 🟨,

Preview

In this match, only outsiders will meet (ranked 20 in the zone Relegation ~ Serie C (First stage: ) and 17 in the zone Relegation ~ Serie C (First stage: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, América MG won 1.

Both teams are struggling and far from their best.

Ceará may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

There will not play in América MG: Ale (Inactive) Cassio Meneses (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Ceará: Gilmar (Injury) Gustavo Prado (Inactive) Vinicius Zanocelo (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in América MG: Heitor (Injury) Wesley (Muscle Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, América MG won 5 matches, drew 10 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 23:25. (average 1.2:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, América MG won 3 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 13:11. (average 1.2:1).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
15	Ceara	31	10	9	12	34:39	-5	39
19	America MG	32	4	5	23	21:53	-32	17

Last Results with these Odds

América Mineiro - the odds 2.6 are the expected chance of winning is 35.86%, but this team recently wins 0% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- América Mineiro
Brazilian Serie B
13.07.26	América Mineiro - Londrina	1:1 ✺
02.07.26	Cuiabá - América Mineiro	1:0 ✺
27.06.26	Operário Ferroviario - América Mineiro	1:0 ✺
23.06.26	América Mineiro - Criciúma	0:1 ✺
16.06.26	Fortaleza - América Mineiro	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.5 TLLLW
- Ceará SC
Brazilian Serie B
13.07.26	Ceará - Athletic Club	0:0 ✺
04.07.26	Goiás - Ceará	2:0 ✺
28.06.26	Juventude - Ceará	2:0 ✺
20.06.26	Ceará - Botafogo SP	0:1 ✺
15.06.26	Criciúma - Ceará	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4 TLLLT

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie B
18.11.24	Ceará - América Mineiro	1:0
28.07.24	América Mineiro - Ceará	2:2
Brazilian Serie A
01.10.22	Ceará - América Mineiro	1:2
08.06.22	América Mineiro - Ceará	0:2
05.12.21	Ceará - América Mineiro	0:0
29.08.21	América Mineiro - Ceará	2:0
09.09.18	América Mineiro - Ceará	0:0

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