Match Info

Serie B Superbet - Round 37

Date: 16 November 2025, Sunday

Location: Mineirão (Belo Horizonte)

Referee: Batista E. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Disney+


	América Mineiro		Cuiabá

	1	X	2
	2.65	3.2	2.55	Watch
	2.68	3	2.68
	2.84	3.11	2.66
	2.64	2.98	2.74	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.7 ↑ (2.32)	3.07 ↓ (3.12)	2.66 ↓ (3.03)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

América Mineiro
34.5%

Draw
30.4%

Cuiabá
35.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

39.9%

29.6%

30.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

41.1%

28.7%

29.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

América Mineiro has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that América Mineiro's form might have worsened.

Cuiabá has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for América Mineiro than the current prediction. (+6.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for América Mineiro, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Cuiabá than the current prediction. (-5.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Cuiabá, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
77.8%	8.3%	13.9%

América Mineiro - Cuiabá Predictions

Users Predictions: 35 users predict this event. América MG will win (votes: 28 - 80%). Cuiabá will win (votes: 4 - 11.4%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 8.6%).
Confidence interval (95%) for América MG: 66.7% – 93.3%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DNB - América MG (1.44) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH 0 - Cuiabá (2.23) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): América Mineiro will win (18 of 20 users predict this - 90%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 22 Selected Experts predict this event. América MG (votes: 19 - 86.4%). Cuiabá (votes: 1 - 4.5%). Tie (votes: 2 - 9.1%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
27. Cassio Meneses (G) 18. Julio Cesar 45. Ricardo Silva (C) 2. Emerson Santos 29. Paulinho 8. Felipe Amaral 15. Kaua Diniz 40. Yago Souza 9. Willian Bigode 69. Thauan 99. Rafa Silva	50. Luan Polli (G) 22. Nino Paraiba 4. Nathan Pelae 5. Calebe Costa 6. Sander 20. David Miguel 27. Denilson Alves 45. De Lucca 11. Carlos Alberto (C) 8. Max Alves 47. Victor Barbara
Substitutes
39. Arthur Sousa 36. Dalbert 70. David da Hora 19. Guilherme Pato 21. Jhosefer 12. Jori (G) 96. Labandeira F. 23. Mariano 42. Miqueias 4. Rafa Barcelos 17. Stenio 33. Yago Santos	32. Asad Y. 15. Eduardo Vinicius 21. Gabriel Mineiro 12. Guilherme Nogueira (G) 77. Jadson 91. Luisao 23. Marcelo Henrique
Coaches
Alberto Valentim	Barros E.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
13', Rafa Silva 🟨,
21', Yago Souza 🟨,
26', Max Alves 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Yago Souza ↓, Rafa Barcelos ↑,
46', Max Alves ↓, Luisao ↑,
49', 0 - 1, Carlos Alberto ⚽, Victor Barbara (A),
58', 1 - 1, Willian Bigode ⚽, Rafa Silva (A),
66', De Lucca ↓, Jadson ↑,
76', Denilson Alves ↓, Gabriel Mineiro ↑,
76', Victor Barbara ↓, Eduardo Vinicius ↑,
78', Willian Bigode ↓, Guilherme Pato ↑,
82', Rafa Silva ↓, Arthur Sousa ↑,
84', Carlos Alberto ↓, Asad Y. ↑,
89', Thauan ↓, Stenio ↑,
89', Kaua Diniz ↓, Miqueias ↑,

Preview

Two mid-table teams will face off this time (ranked 13 and 11).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, América MG won 1.

In recent matches, América MG has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Cuiabá's performance has dropped in recent matches (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Cuiabá may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, América MG is considered a favorite.

There will not play in América MG: Ale (Knee Injury) Aloisio (Thigh Injury) Gustavo (Yellow Cards) Lucao (Yellow Cards) Maguinho (Pelvis Injury) Marlon (Inactive) Ortiz C. (Inactive)

There will not play in Cuiabá: Alan Empereur (Inactive) Asad Y. (Knee Injury) Mateus Pasinato (Hamstring Injury)

There are questionable in América MG: Fabinho (Inactive) Heber (Inactive) Julio Cesar (Injury)

In the last 11 head-to-head matches, América MG won 4 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 13:12. (average 1.2:1.1).

Including home matches between the teams, América MG won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 5:5. (average 1:1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- América Mineiro
Brazilian Serie B
10.11.25	Chapecoense - América Mineiro	0:1 ✺
03.11.25	América Mineiro - Grêmio Novorizontino	2:2 ✺
25.10.25	Athletic Club - América Mineiro	0:2 ✺
18.10.25	América Mineiro - CRB Maceio	1:1 ✺
12.10.25	Criciúma - América Mineiro	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.7 WTWTL
- Cuiabá EC
Brazilian Serie B
07.11.25	Cuiabá - Goiás	0:1 ✺
02.11.25	Amazonas - Cuiabá	2:0 ✺
24.10.25	Cuiabá - Remo	1:3 ✺
19.10.25	Botafogo SP - Cuiabá	2:2 ✺
12.10.25	Cuiabá - Coritiba	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.5 LLLTW

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie B
23.07.25	Cuiabá - América Mineiro	3:1
Brazilian Serie A
15.09.23	Cuiabá - América Mineiro	2:2
07.05.23	América Mineiro - Cuiabá	1:2
28.09.22	Cuiabá - América Mineiro	2:1
04.06.22	América Mineiro - Cuiabá	2:1
02.10.21	Cuiabá - América Mineiro	0:2
17.06.21	América Mineiro - Cuiabá	0:0

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