Match Info

Serie B - Round 33

Date: 11 October 2026, Sunday 🏁 Finished

Location: Arena Pantanal (Cuiabá) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Filho A. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Brazil	18:30	Disney+


	Cuiabá		Avaí

	1	X	2
	1.57	3.6	6	Watch
	1.60	3.60	5.25
	1.62	3.45	5.3	Watch
	1.66	3.7	6.02
	1.64	3.65	5.5	Watch
	1.62	3.6	5.85
	1.65	3.52	5.28	Watch
	1.63	3.55	5.4
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.62 ↓ (1.82)	3.58 ↑ (3.3)	5.58 ↑ (4.6)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Cuiabá
57.3%

Draw
26%

Avaí
16.7%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

51.4%

28.3%

20.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

52.5%

27.7%

19.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Cuiabá has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Cuiabá's performance.

Avaí has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Cuiabá than the current prediction. (-4.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Avaí than the current prediction. (+3.1%)

Cuiabá - Avaí Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Joao Carlos (G) 13. Joao Basso 5. Calebe Costa 4. Vitor Mendes 2. Igor Inocencio 30. Raul (C) 20. David Miguel 36. Lorenzo 41. Kauan Cristtyan 77. Jean Dias 90. Fabio Gomes	94. Bruno Ferreira (G) 22. Joao Vitor 3. Allyson 38. Jefferson Maciel 36. Douglas Teixeira 77. Ze Ricardo 8. Luiz Henrique 95. Wenderson 14. Daniel Penha 10. Jean Lucas (C) 19. Caio Suassuna
Substitutes
12. Busatto G. (G) 11. Eliel 14. Eric Melo 26. Joao Vitor 91. Luis Soares 97. Luiz Otavio 96. Pedro H. 7. Ramon 27. Rodrigo Rodrigues 29. Vinicius Peixoto 70. Wesley Dias 53. Weverson	70. Gaspar 18. Hyan 1. Igor Bohn (G) 7. Leo Chu 9. Leo Gamalho 25. Paulo Vitor 35. Pedrao 66. Quaresma 5. Romildo Del Piage 2. Wallison
Coaches
Barros E.	Marquinhos

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
29', David Miguel 🟨,
40', 0 - 1, Daniel Penha ⚽, Joao Vitor (A),
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Raul ↓, Luiz Otavio ↑,
46', David Miguel ↓, Vinicius Peixoto ↑,
54', Joao Vitor 🟨,
61', Fabio Gomes ↓, Pedro H. ↑,
61', Luiz Henrique ↓, Paulo Vitor ↑,
61', Wenderson ↓, Pedrao ↑,
61', Igor Inocencio ↓, Ramon ↑,
66', Caio Suassuna ↓, Leo Gamalho ↑,
74', Jean Dias ↓, Rodrigo Rodrigues ↑,
74', Joao Vitor ↓, Wallison ↑,
74', Jean Lucas ↓, Gaspar ↑,
90', Daniel Penha 🟨,

Preview

Important points are at stake as a mid-tier club meets a struggling opponent (ranked 10th and 17th in the Relegation - Serie C (First stage: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Cuiabá won 2.

Cuiabá has experienced an up-and-down run in recent matches (last 5 matches: 2 wins).

Avaí is experiencing a dip in performance (last 5 matches: 1 win).

Cuiabá carries the favorite tag into this contest.

Confirmed absences for Cuiabá: Alan Empereur (Inactive) Marcos Junior (Inactive) Pepe (Inactive).

Confirmed absences for Avaí: Juan Rocha (Injury) Rildo (Inactive).

Doubtful / questionable for Cuiabá: Marcelo Carne (Injury).

Doubtful / questionable for Avaí: Reynaldo (Injury).

In the last 7 head-to-head meetings, Cuiabá has recorded 4 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses, with a goal aggregate of 9:7 (averaging 1.3:1 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Cuiabá against this opponent, the record stands at 2 wins, 1 draw, and 0 losses, with 5:3 goals (averaging 1.7:1 per game).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
13	Cuiaba	35	11	14	10	32:28	4	47
17	Avai	35	10	7	18	33:45	-12	37

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Cuiabá EC
Brazilian Serie B
07.10.26	Vila Nova - Cuiabá	0:0 ✺
03.10.26	Cuiabá - Ponte Preta	2:0 ✺
27.09.26	CRB Maceio - Cuiabá	3:0 ✺
21.09.26	Cuiabá - Náutico Capibaribe	3:0 ✺
13.09.26	Grêmio Novorizontino - Cuiabá	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.4 TWLWT
- Avaí
Brazilian Serie B
07.10.26	Avaí - Londrina	2:1 ✺
03.10.26	Avaí - Ceará	0:1 ✺
27.09.26	Criciúma - Avaí	3:0 ✺
20.09.26	Goiás - Avaí	2:1 ✺
14.09.26	Avaí - Vila Nova	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.2 WLLLT

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie B
21.06.26	Avaí - Cuiabá	1:0
10.08.25	Avaí - Cuiabá	2:0
10.04.25	Cuiabá - Avaí	2:2
Brazilian Serie A
27.10.22	Cuiabá - Avaí	1:0
03.07.22	Avaí - Cuiabá	1:2
Brazilian Serie B
27.11.20	Cuiabá - Avaí	2:1
22.08.20	Avaí - Cuiabá	0:2

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