Match Info

Serie B Superbet - Round 4

Date: 12 April 2026, Sunday

Location: Mineirão (Belo Horizonte)

Referee: Machado B. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Claro TV+, Disney+, ESPN, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping


	América Mineiro		Grêmio Novorizontino

	1	X	2
	2.15	3.2	3.4	Watch
	2.2	3.1	3.25	Watch
	2.27	3.22	3.48
	2.22	3.17	3.35
	2.2	3	3.3
	2.21	3.15	3.3	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.21 ↓ (2.27)	3.14 ↑ (3.06)	3.35 ↑ (3.23)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

América Mineiro
42.3%

Draw
29.8%

Grêmio Novorizontino
27.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

40.9%

30.4%

28.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

40.2%

29.9%

29.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

América Mineiro has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.4%)

Grêmio Novorizontino has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for América Mineiro than the current prediction. (-2.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Grêmio Novorizontino than the current prediction. (+1.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

América Mineiro - Grêmio Novorizontino Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. América MG will win (votes: 4 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Gustavo (G) 42. Jhonny 2. Emerson Santos 4. Rafa Barcelos 29. Dalbert 8. Felipe Amaral 16. Ale (C) 97. Val Soares 23. Everton Brito 9. Willian Bigode 17. Gonzalo Mastriani	31. Cesar Augusto (G) 22. Ivan Alvarino 25. Dantas 3. Carlinhos 5. Sander 19. Diego Galo 6. Luis Oyama 10. Romulo 17. Matheus Bianqui 16. Vinicius Paiva 11. Robson (C)
Substitutes
21. Eduardo Person 5. Elizari F. 88. Jhonatan Lima 22. Leo Alaba 3. Nathan Pelae 6. Paulinho 20. Paulo Victor 77. Segovia M. 11. Thauan 43. Wesley 19. William (G) 10. Yago Souza	9. Carlao 20. Castrillon N. 26. Gabriel Bahia 77. Helio Borges 12. Joao Scapin (G) 50. Juninho 18. Leo Naldi 24. Lora J. 8. Ortiz C. 4. Patrick 15. Tavinho
Coaches
Alberto Valentim	Moreira E.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
27', Emerson Santos ↓, Nathan Pelae ↑,
2nd Half (0 - 3)
52', Dalbert 🟨,
63', Vinicius Paiva ↓, Tavinho ↑,
63', Dantas ↓, Patrick ↑,
66', Romulo ↓, Juninho ↑,
69', Willian Bigode ↓, Yago Souza ↑,
69', Val Soares ↓, Segovia M. ↑,
70', Matheus Bianqui 🟨,
71', 0 - 1, Diego Galo ⚽, Juninho (A),
74', 0 - 2, Sander ⚽,
76', Diego Galo 🟨,
77', Ale ↓, Eduardo Person ↑,
77', Everton Brito ↓, Thauan ↑,
87', Diego Galo ↓, Leo Naldi ↑,
87', Robson ↓, Carlao ↑,
90+2', 0 - 3, Tavinho ⚽, Juninho (A),

Preview

Recent form of América MG has been disappointing (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Novorizontino is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

América MG may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

América MG will hold a modest advantage in this match.

There will not play in América MG: Ricardo Silva (Inactive)

There will not play in Novorizontino: Helio Borges (Inactive) Jordi (Inactive) Marlon (Inactive) Maykon Jesus (Inactive)

There are questionable in Novorizontino: Nicolas Careca (Injury)

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, América MG won 1 match, drew 3 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 7:7. (average 1.4:1.4).

Including home matches between the teams, América MG won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 4:2. (average 2:1).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
4	Novorizontino	31	15	9	7	52:27	25	54
19	America MG	32	4	5	23	21:53	-32	17

Last Results with these Odds

América Mineiro - the odds 2.27 are the expected chance of winning is 40.9%, but this team recently wins 14% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- América Mineiro
Brazilian Copa Sul Sudeste
08.04.26	Tombense - América Mineiro	3:3 ✺
Brazilian Serie B
05.04.26	Athletic Club - América Mineiro	1:1 ✺
01.04.26	América Mineiro - Botafogo SP	1:2 ✺
Brazilian Copa Sul Sudeste
29.03.26	América Mineiro - Caxias	1:2 ✺
25.03.26	Grêmio Novorizontino - América Mineiro	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7 TTLLT
- Grêmio Novorizontino
Brazilian Copa Sul Sudeste
09.04.26	Grêmio Novorizontino - São Bernardo	1:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie B
05.04.26	Grêmio Novorizontino - CRB Maceio	1:1 ✺
31.03.26	Juventude - Grêmio Novorizontino	0:0 ✺
Brazilian Copa Sul Sudeste
28.03.26	Juventude - Grêmio Novorizontino	0:2 ✺
25.03.26	Grêmio Novorizontino - América Mineiro	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.8 WTTWT

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Copa Sul Sudeste
25.03.26	Grêmio Novorizontino - América Mineiro	1:1
Brazilian Serie B
03.11.25	América Mineiro - Grêmio Novorizontino	2:2
12.07.25	Grêmio Novorizontino - América Mineiro	3:1
16.08.24	Grêmio Novorizontino - América Mineiro	1:1
27.04.24	América Mineiro - Grêmio Novorizontino	2:0

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