Match Info

Serie B Superbet - Round 3

Date: 5 April 2026, Sunday

Location: Estádio Joaquim Portugal (Minas Gerais)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Disney+


	Athletic Club		América Mineiro

	1	X	2
	2.5	3	3	Watch
	2.42	2.98	3	Watch
	2.62	2.96	3.13
	2.4	3.08	3.09
	2.5	2.8	2.9
	2.51	2.93	3.03	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.49 ↑ (2.31)	2.96 ↓ (2.97)	3.03 ↓ (3.27)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Athletic Club
37.5%

Draw
31.6%

América Mineiro
30.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

40.2%

31.4%

28.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

41.8%

30.2%

27.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Athletic Club has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.7%)

América Mineiro has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Athletic Club than the current prediction. (+4.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for América Mineiro than the current prediction. (-3.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
50%	33.3%	16.7%

Athletic Club - América Mineiro Predictions

Users Predictions: 6 users predict this event. Athletic will win (votes: 3 - 50%). América MG will win (votes: 1 - 16.7%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 33.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Luan Polli (G) 2. Diogo Batista 13. Gabriel Indio 4. Belezi 6. Zeca (C) 17. Kauan Rodrigues 5. Ian Luccas 7. Bruninho 15. Jota 11. Ruan Assis 9. Tavares R.	1. Gustavo (G) 29. Dalbert 4. Rafa Barcelos 2. Emerson Santos 3. Nathan Pelae 16. Ale (C) 7. Gabriel Barros 8. Felipe Amaral 42. Jhonny 9. Willian Bigode 17. Gonzalo Mastriani
Substitutes
14. Alexandre Pena 3. Felipe Vieira 19. Gabriel Moyses 12. Glauco (G) 10. Gustavinho 22. Kauan Lindes 20. Leo Chu 23. Marcelo Henrique 18. Pedro Oliveira 21. Samuel Otusanya	96. Artur 21. Eduardo Person 5. Elizari F. 23. Everton Brito 22. Leo Alaba 6. Paulinho 20. Paulo Victor 77. Segovia M. 11. Thauan 97. Val Soares 19. William (G) 10. Yago Souza
Coaches
Alex Souza	Alberto Valentim

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
37', 1 - 0, Tavares R. ⚽, Ruan Assis (A),
39', Bruninho 🟨,
42', Ian Luccas 🟥,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Nathan Pelae ↓, Eduardo Person ↑,
46', Bruninho ↓, Joao Miguel ↑,
46', Ruan Assis ↓, Cabezas G. ↑,
57', Ale ↓, Everton Brito ↑,
57', Gabriel Barros ↓, Elizari F. ↑,
62', Felipe Amaral 🟨,
63', Jota ↓, Pedro Oliveira ↑,
67', Jhonny ↓, Thauan ↑,
73', Felipe Amaral ↓, Val Soares ↑,
82', 1 - 1, Gonzalo Mastriani ⚽,
89', Kauan Rodrigues ↓, Alexandre Pena ↑,
90+3', Diogo Batista 🟨,
90+4', Tavares R. ↓, Samuel Otusanya ↑,
90+4', Rafa Barcelos 🟨,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Athletic won 1.

Athletic is in fantastic form, winning most of its recent matches (last 5 games: 4 wins).

América MG has been on a rough run of results (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Athletic may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Athletic might have a minor edge in this game.

There will not play in Athletic: Douglas Pele (Injury) Fabricio Isidoro (Inactive) Jhonatan Luiz (Inactive) Rodrigo Gelado (Inactive) Sidimar (Inactive) Vera D. (Red Card)

There will not play in América MG: Ricardo Silva (Inactive)

We predict that Athletic will win today's game, with odds of 2.31.

In the last 6 head-to-head matches, Athletic won 1 match, drew 2 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 3:8. (average 0.5:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Athletic won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 1:4. (average 0.3:1.3).

Outrights of Brazilian Serie B for now

Athletic Club: 0.3%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
14	Athletic Club	32	10	12	10	38:37	1	42
19	America MG ✔	32	4	5	23	21:53	-32	17

Last Results with these Odds

Athletic Club - the odds 2.31 are the expected chance of winning is 40.22%, but this team recently wins 0% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Athletic Club MG
Brazilian Serie B
01.04.26	Criciúma - Athletic Club	1:1 ✺
22.03.26	Athletic Club - Ponte Preta	2:1 ✺
Copa do Brasil
17.03.26	Sport Recife - Athletic Club	1:3 ✺
11.03.26	Athletic Club - Ypiranga	2:0 ✺
04.03.26	Rio Branco AC ES - Athletic Club	1:2 penalties ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 23.6 TWWWW
- América Mineiro
Brazilian Serie B
01.04.26	América Mineiro - Botafogo SP	1:2 ✺
Brazilian Copa Sul Sudeste
29.03.26	América Mineiro - Caxias	1:2 ✺
25.03.26	Grêmio Novorizontino - América Mineiro	1:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie B
22.03.26	Goiás - América Mineiro	3:1 ✺
Copa do Brasil
12.03.26	Barra Santa Catarina - América Mineiro	1:0 penalties ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.1 LLTLL

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Campeonato Mineiro
11.01.26	América Mineiro - Athletic Club	3:0
Brazilian Serie B
25.10.25	Athletic Club - América Mineiro	0:2
07.07.25	América Mineiro - Athletic Club	0:1
Brazilian Campeonato Mineiro
07.02.23	Athletic Club - América Mineiro	1:1
05.02.22	América Mineiro - Athletic Club	1:1
03.03.21	Athletic Club - América Mineiro	0:1

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