Match Info

Copa Sul-Sudeste - Round 3

Date: 8 April 2026, Wednesday

Location: Estadio Antonio Guimaraes de Almeida (Tombos)


	Tombense		América Mineiro

	1	X	2
				Watch
				Watch
	1.93	3.58	3.55
	1.96	3.51	3.37
	1.91	3.2	3.5
	1.94	3.28	3.56
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.94 ↓ (2.6)	3.39 ↑ (3.1)	3.5 ↑ (2.44)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 7.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Tombense
47.1%

Draw
26.9%

América Mineiro
26.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

34.4%

28.8%

36.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

34.9%

29.2%

36.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Tombense has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+12.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Tombense's performance.

América Mineiro has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-10.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and América Mineiro might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Tombense than the current prediction. (-12.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Tombense that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for América Mineiro than the current prediction. (+10.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that América Mineiro could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Tombense - América Mineiro Predictions

Users Predictions: 5 users predict this event. Tombense will win (votes: 5 - 100%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Tombense (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DC - Tombense (1.33) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Tombense (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Douglas Marques (C) 10. Alan Mineiro 13. Almeida da Silva K. D. 4. Breno Roma 11. Cesar 3. Donato 8. Dyego 7. Jupi 9. Luiz Felipe 5. Wanderson 6. Xavier	19. William (G) 96. Artur (C) 21. Eduardo Person 5. Elizari F. 22. Leo Alaba 6. Paulinho 20. Paulo Victor 77. Segovia M. 11. Thauan 43. Wesley 33. Yago Santos
Substitutes
12. Alan (G) 15. Diego Leandro 14. Joao Vitor 20. Joao Vitor 2. Julio Henrique 18. Matheus Chaves 16. PH 17. Silvano 22. Sousa Rocha Leandro J. 21. Vitinho	88. Jhonatan Lima 66. Leo Izidoro 61. Oliveira G. 68. Rodrigues R. H. 12. Samuel 78. Sena G. 67. Yarlen

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
3', 1 - 0, Alan Mineiro ⚽,
7', Wesley 🟨,
24', Dyego 🟨,
30', Artur 🟨,
32', Wanderson 🟨,
38', Breno Roma 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 3)
46', Alan Mineiro ↓, Joao Vitor ↑,
46', Jupi ↓, Sousa Rocha Leandro J. ↑,
49', 1 - 1, Paulo Victor ⚽,
60', 1 - 2, Paulinho ⚽,
63', Almeida da Silva K. D. ↓, Diego Leandro ↑,
66', 2 - 2, Luiz Felipe ⚽,
67', Sousa Rocha Leandro J. 🟨,
68', 🟨,
72', Cesar 🟨,
73', Elizari F. ↓, Jhonatan Lima ↑,
73', Thauan ↓, Yarlen ↑,
73', Luiz Felipe ↓, Silvano ↑,
75', Leo Alaba ↓, Samuel ↑,
84', 3 - 2, Sousa Rocha Leandro J. ⚽,
90', 🟨,
90+3', 3 - 3, Paulinho ⚽,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Tombense won 2.

Recent performances by Tombense have been up and down (last 5 games: 2 wins).

América MG's performance has dropped in recent matches (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Tombense may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Tombense has had a series of away games.

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

In the last 13 head-to-head matches, Tombense won 4 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 13:15. (average 1:1.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Tombense won 4 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 10:6. (average 1.3:0.8).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Tombense FC
Brazilian Serie D
04.04.26	Vitória ES - Tombense	0:1 ✺
Brazilian Copa Sul Sudeste
28.03.26	Operário Ferroviario - Tombense	1:0 ✺
25.03.26	Tombense - Avaí	3:2 ✺
Copa do Brasil
11.03.26	Confiança - Tombense	2:0 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Mineiro
28.02.26	URT - Tombense	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.5 WLWLL
- América Mineiro
Brazilian Serie B
05.04.26	Athletic Club - América Mineiro	1:1 ✺
01.04.26	América Mineiro - Botafogo SP	1:2 ✺
Brazilian Copa Sul Sudeste
29.03.26	América Mineiro - Caxias	1:2 ✺
25.03.26	Grêmio Novorizontino - América Mineiro	1:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie B
22.03.26	Goiás - América Mineiro	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.7 TLLTL

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Campeonato Mineiro
08.02.25	Tombense - América Mineiro	1:0
02.03.24	Tombense - América Mineiro	0:1
04.03.23	América Mineiro - Tombense	3:1
26.03.22	América Mineiro - Tombense	1:1
23.03.22	Tombense - América Mineiro	3:1
19.03.22	América Mineiro - Tombense	1:0
11.04.21	Tombense - América Mineiro	2:1

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