Match Info

Serie B Superbet - Round 7

Date: 14 May 2025, Wednesday

Location: Mineirão (Belo Horizonte)

Referee: Belence P. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Disney+


	América Mineiro		Paysandu

	1	X	2
	1.57	3.9	5.75	Watch
	1.55	3.7	5.75
	1.58	3.8	5.8
	1.57	3.85	6.69
	1.59	3.64	6.23
	1.6	3.6	6
	1.58	3.78	6.13	Watch
	1.58	3.8	5.8
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.58 ↓ (1.74)	3.76 ↑ (3.5)	6.02 ↑ (4.6)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 4.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

América Mineiro
59.5%

Draw
25%

Paysandu
15.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

53.3%

26.5%

20.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

54.7%

25.8%

19.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

América Mineiro has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in América Mineiro's performance.

Paysandu has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for América Mineiro than the current prediction. (-4.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Paysandu than the current prediction. (+4.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
75%	25%	0%

América Mineiro - Paysandu Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. América MG will win (votes: 6 - 75%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 25%).
Confidence interval (95%) for América MG: 45% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. América MG (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Matheus Mendes (G) 23. Mariano 18. Julio Cesar 3. Lucao (C) 6. Marlon 42. Miqueias 8. Felipe Amaral 5. Elizari F. 22. Figueiredo 9. Willian Bigode 17. Stenio	13. Matheus Nogueira (G) 2. Edilson 3. Quintana Y. 4. Luan Freitas 94. Patric Calmon 28. Leandro Vilela 8. Andre Lima 21. Bryan Borges 77. Rossi 11. Nicolas (C) 9. Benitez J.
Substitutes
27. Cassio Meneses (G) 30. Gustavinho 21. Jhosefer 12. Jori (G) 47. Kauan Cristtyan 29. Paulinho 4. Pedro Barcelos 14. Rafa Barcelos 78. Renato Marques 45. Ricardo Silva 71. Samuel 40. Yago Souza	32. Cavalleri M. 22. Eliel 6. Espinoza J. 12. Gabriel Mesquita (G) 10. Giovanni 38. Kaua Hinkel 30. Marcelinho 35. Mauricio Antonio 16. Reverson
Coaches
William Batista	Luizinho Lopes

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
26', Rossi 🟨,
27', Bryan Borges 🟨,
29', Miqueias 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 2)
48', Andre Lima 🟨,
51', Quintana Y. ↓, Mauricio Antonio ↑,
59', 0 - 1, Rossi ⚽,
64', Felipe Amaral ↓, Jhosefer ↑,
64', Rossi ↓, Giovanni ↑,
70', 0 - 2, Benitez J. ⚽,
73', Stenio ↓, Renato Marques ↑,
77', Nicolas ↓, Eliel ↑,
77', Benitez J. ↓, Espinoza J. ↑,
77', Leandro Vilela ↓, Reverson ↑,
80', Miqueias ↓, Yago Souza ↑,
80', Figueiredo ↓, Kauan Cristtyan ↑,
80', Elizari F. ↓, Gustavinho ↑,
86', 1 - 2, Willian Bigode ⚽,
89', 2 - 2, Julio Cesar ⚽, Mariano (A),
90+2', Matheus Nogueira 🟨,

Preview

A meeting between a mid-table team and the outsider will take place in this match (ranked 14 and 20 in the zone Relegation ~ Serie C (First stage: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, América MG won 3.

América MG has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Paysandu has been struggling lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Paysandu may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, América MG is considered a favorite.

There will not play in América MG: Ale (Inactive) Cauan Barros (Yellow Cards) Guilherme Pato (Inactive) Kaua Diniz (Red Card) Mariano (Inactive) Yago Santos (Inactive)

There will not play in Paysandu: Kevyn (Knee Injury) Matheus Vargas (Yellow Cards)

There are questionable in América MG: Gustavinho (Injury)

There are questionable in Paysandu: Delvalle P. (Injury) Edinho (Injury) Mauricio Antonio (Injury)

In the last 8 head-to-head matches, América MG won 4 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 8:8. (average 1:1).

Including home matches between the teams, América MG won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 5:4. (average 1.3:1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- América Mineiro
Brazilian Serie B
04.05.25	Operário Ferroviario - América Mineiro	1:0 ✺
26.04.25	Avaí - América Mineiro	3:0 ✺
20.04.25	América Mineiro - Goiás	1:0 ✺
17.04.25	América Mineiro - Amazonas	3:1 ✺
13.04.25	Remo - América Mineiro	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.7 LLWWL
- Paysandu PA
Brazilian Campeonato Paraense
11.05.25	Remo - Paysandu	1:1 penalties ✺
07.05.25	Paysandu - Remo	2:3 ✺
Brazilian Serie B
03.05.25	Volta Redonda - Paysandu	1:0 ✺
Copa do Brasil
30.04.25	Paysandu - Bahia	0:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie B
27.04.25	Paysandu - CRB Maceio	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.8 WLLLT

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie B
18.09.24	América Mineiro - Paysandu	2:0
04.06.24	Paysandu - América Mineiro	2:0
08.09.17	Paysandu - América Mineiro	0:1
02.06.17	América Mineiro - Paysandu	0:2
03.11.15	América Mineiro - Paysandu	3:1
28.07.15	Paysandu - América Mineiro	2:0
29.10.13	América Mineiro - Paysandu	0:1

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