Match Info

Serie B Superbet - Round 5

Date: 27 April 2025, Sunday

Location: Leonidas Sodre de Castro (Belem)

Referee: Vollkopf P. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Claro TV+, Disney+, ESPN 4, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping
World	Disney+


	Paysandu		CRB Maceio

	1	X	2
	2.05	3.1	4	Watch
	1.98	3	3.8
	2.11	3.05	3.7
	2.06	3.1	4.29
	2.07	2.93	4.14	Watch
	2.1	3	3.9
	2.07	3.02	4.08	Watch
	2.11	3.05	3.7
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.07 ↑ (1.79)	3.03 ↓ (3.64)	3.95 ↓ (4.19)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 4.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Paysandu
45.3%

Draw
30.9%

CRB Maceio
23.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

52.1%

25.7%

22.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

53.3%

26.3%

21.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Paysandu has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Paysandu's form might have worsened.

CRB Maceio has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Paysandu than the current prediction. (+8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Paysandu, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for CRB Maceio than the current prediction. (-1.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
62.5%	25%	12.5%

Paysandu - CRB Maceio Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Paysandu will win (votes: 5 - 62.5%). CRB will win (votes: 1 - 12.5%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 25%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Paysandu: 29% – 96%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 8 Selected Experts predict this event. Paysandu (votes: 4 - 50%). CRB (votes: 2 - 25%). Tie (votes: 2 - 25%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -0.5 - Paysandu (2.02) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 9 Selected Experts predict this event. Paysandu (votes: 5 - 55.6%). CRB (votes: 2 - 22.2%). Tie (votes: 2 - 22.2%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
13. Matheus Nogueira (G) 2. Edilson 4. Luan Freitas 5. Novillo J. 16. Reverson 27. Ramon Martinez 28. Leandro Vilela 96. Matheus Vargas 77. Rossi (C) 9. Benitez J. 24. Borasi B.	12. Matheus Albino (G) 60. Hayner 44. Henri 34. Darlisson 2. Matheus Ribeiro 22. Higor Meritao 8. Gege (C) 10. Danielzinho 7. Douglas Baggio 9. Breno Herculano 17. Thiaguinho
Substitutes
21. Bryan Borges 32. Cavalleri M. 17. Delvalle P. 15. Dudu Vieira 22. Eliel 6. Espinoza J. 12. Gabriel Mesquita (G) 10. Giovanni 34. Lucca Carvalho 20. Marlon Douglas 11. Nicolas 94. Patric Calmon	3. Anderson Jesus 99. Daniel Lima 30. Fernando Henrique 5. Lucas Kallyel 28. Mikael 18. Rafinha 33. Rodriguinho 20. Vinicius Barata 1. Vitor Caetano (G) 42. Weverton 6. Willian Bahia
Coaches
Luizinho Lopes	Eduardo Barroca

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
41', 0 - 1, Thiaguinho ⚽,
43', Ramon Martinez ↓, Dudu Vieira ↑,
44', 1 - 1, Reverson ⚽, Matheus Vargas (A),
2nd Half (0 - 0)
57', Douglas Baggio ↓, Vinicius Barata ↑,
60', Leandro Vilela 🟥,
64', Hayner 🟨,
67', Matheus Vargas ↓, Espinoza J. ↑,
67', Benitez J. ↓, Nicolas ↑,
68', Breno Herculano ↓, Mikael ↑,
68', Hayner ↓, Willian Bahia ↑,
78', Borasi B. ↓, Eliel ↑,
78', Rossi ↓, Marlon Douglas ↑,
81', Thiaguinho ↓, Rodriguinho ↑,
81', Danielzinho ↓, Rafinha ↑,
87', Rafinha 🟨,
90+5', Vinicius Barata 🟨,

Preview

Last 5 head-to-head matches Paysandu won 0.

Recent matches Paysandu is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

CRB is in a first-rate shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Paysandu will have a poor advantage in this game.

Last 13 head-to-head matches Paysandu won 3 matches, drawn 5 matches, lost 5 matches and goals 19:18 (average 1.5:1.4).

Including matches at home between the teams Paysandu won 2 matches, drawn 4 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 14:9 (average 1.8:1.1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Paysandu PA
Brazilian Copa Verde
23.04.25	Goiás - Paysandu	1:2 penalties ✺
Brazilian Serie B
19.04.25	Operário Ferroviario - Paysandu	0:0 ✺
16.04.25	Paysandu - Chapecoense	0:2 ✺
12.04.25	Vila Nova - Paysandu	1:0 ✺
Brazilian Copa Verde
09.04.25	Paysandu - Goiás	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.8 WTLLT
- CRB Maceio
Brazilian Serie B
20.04.25	Athletico Paranaense - CRB Maceio	2:0 ✺
17.04.25	CRB Maceio - Volta Redonda	1:0 ✺
13.04.25	Athletic Club - CRB Maceio	1:2 ✺
05.04.25	CRB Maceio - Chapecoense	1:0 ✺
Brazilian Copa do Nordeste
26.03.25	Fortaleza - CRB Maceio	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 21.3 LWWWW

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie B
04.10.24	CRB Maceio - Paysandu	3:2
18.06.24	Paysandu - CRB Maceio	1:1
Copa do Brasil
13.04.21	Paysandu - CRB Maceio	1:2
19.02.20	Paysandu - CRB Maceio	1:2 penalties
Brazilian Serie B
09.10.18	Paysandu - CRB Maceio	1:1
23.06.18	CRB Maceio - Paysandu	1:1
13.10.17	Paysandu - CRB Maceio	0:0

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