Match Info

Copa Betano do Brasil - 1/16-finals

Date: 30 April 2025, Wednesday

Location: Estadio Olimpico do Para (Belem)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Amazon Prime Video


	Paysandu		Bahia

	1	X	2
	3.6	2.9	2.25
	3.6	3.1	1.95
	3.45	3	2.22
	3.63	3.05	2.24
	3.55	3.01	2.22	Watch
	3.75	3	2.05
	3.45	3.1	2.23
	3.45	3	2.22
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.56 ↑ (3.1)	3.02 ↓ (3.1)	2.17 ↑ (2.15)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Paysandu
26.2%

Draw
30.9%

Bahia
42.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

29.1%

41.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

28.4%

43%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Paysandu has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.9%)

Bahia has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Paysandu than the current prediction. (+2.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Bahia than the current prediction. (+0.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
33.3%	0%	66.7%

Paysandu - Bahia Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Paysandu will win (votes: 1 - 25%). Bahia will win (votes: 3 - 75%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
13. Matheus Nogueira (G) 21. Bryan Borges 4. Luan Freitas 5. Novillo J. 94. Patric Calmon 28. Leandro Vilela 15. Dudu Vieira 16. Reverson 24. Borasi B. 11. Nicolas (C) 20. Marlon Douglas	22. Marcos Felipe (C) 14. Erick 3. Gabriel Xavier 5. Rezende 25. Iago Borduchi 26. Nicolas Acevedo 11. Rodrigo 15. Michel Araujo 8. Cauly 7. Ademir 9. Rodriguez L.
Substitutes
8. Andre Lima 9. Benitez J. 32. Cavalleri M. 17. Delvalle P. 2. Edilson 22. Eliel 6. Espinoza J. 12. Gabriel Mesquita (G) 10. Giovanni 34. Lucca Carvalho 96. Matheus Vargas 77. Rossi	19. Caio Alexandre 1. Danilo Fernandes (G) 33. David Duarte 16. Erick Pulga 10. Everton Ribeiro 83. Fred Lippert 2. Gilberto 6. Jean Lucas 37. Kayky 46. Luciano Juba 77. Tiago 12. Willian Jose
Coaches
Luizinho Lopes	Mucke R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
11', Nicolas Acevedo 🟨,
36', Patric Calmon 🟨,
43', 0 - 1, Cauly (Pen),
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Michel Araujo ↓, Gilberto ↑,
46', Patric Calmon ↓, Rossi ↑,
46', Marlon Douglas ↓, Matheus Vargas ↑,
60', Bryan Borges ↓, Edilson ↑,
60', Rossi ↓, Benitez J. ↑,
66', Iago Borduchi ↓, Luciano Juba ↑,
66', Cauly ↓, Kayky ↑,
72', Borasi B. ↓, Cavalleri M. ↑,
74', Ademir ↓, Tiago ↑,
80', Rodrigo ↓, Jean Lucas ↑,
81', Matheus Vargas 🟨,
87', Erick 🟨,

Preview

1st leg.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches Paysandu won 2.

In recent matches, Paysandu has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Bahia is in a first-class shape now (in the last 5 games, wins - 3).

Bahia will have a poor advantage in this game.

In the last 6 head-to-head matches, Paysandu won 2 matches, drew 1 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 5:8 (average 0.8:1.3).

Including matches at home between the teams, Paysandu won 2 matches, drew 1 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 5:1 (average 1.7:0.3).

Last Results with these Odds

Bahia - the odds 2.15 are the expected chance of winning is 41.89%, but this team recently wins 71% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Paysandu PA
Brazilian Serie B
27.04.25	Paysandu - CRB Maceio	1:1 ✺
Brazilian Copa Verde
23.04.25	Goiás - Paysandu	1:2 penalties ✺
Brazilian Serie B
19.04.25	Operário Ferroviario - Paysandu	0:0 ✺
16.04.25	Paysandu - Chapecoense	0:2 ✺
12.04.25	Vila Nova - Paysandu	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.5 TWTLL
- EC Bahia
Brazilian Serie A
27.04.25	Palmeiras - Bahia	0:1 ✺
Copa Libertadores
24.04.25	Bahia - Atlético Nacional	1:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
21.04.25	Bahia - Ceará	1:0 ✺
17.04.25	Cruzeiro - Bahia	3:0 ✺
13.04.25	Bahia - Mirassol	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.8 WWWLT

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie B
13.09.16	Paysandu - Bahia	2:1
03.06.16	Bahia - Paysandu	3:0
06.10.15	Paysandu - Bahia	0:0
Copa do Brasil
22.07.15	Bahia - Paysandu	2:0
15.07.15	Paysandu - Bahia	3:0
Brazilian Serie B
07.07.15	Bahia - Paysandu	2:0

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