Match Info

Serie D - Group F - Play Offs - Semi-finals

Date: 10 May 2026, Sunday

Location: Stadio del Conero (Ancona)


	Ancona		Notaresco

	1	X	2
	1.7	3.35	4.35
	1.58	3.47	4.86
	1.59	4	4.69	Watch
	1.58	3.74	4.98
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.61 ↓ (1.7)	3.64 ↑ (3.43)	4.72 ↑ (4.6)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 9.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ancona
56%

Draw
24.8%

Notaresco
19.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

53.7%

26.6%

19.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

48.6%

24%

21.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ancona has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.3%)

Notaresco has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ancona than the current prediction. (-7.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Ancona that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Notaresco than the current prediction. (+2.8%)

Ancona - Notaresco Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
41', 1 - 0, Kouko D. (Penalty Awarded),
2nd Half (0 - 1)
70', 1 - 1, Infantino S. (Penalty Awarded),
Extra Time (0 - 2)
110', 1 - 2, ⚽,
120+1', 1 - 3, ⚽,

Preview

Recent performances by Ancona have been up and down (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Notaresco has been struggling lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

In this match, Ancona is considered a favorite.

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Ancona won 2 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 6:3. (average 1.5:0.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Ancona won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 4:2. (average 2:1).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
5	Ancona	6	3	2	1	8:5	3	11
7	Notaresco Calcio	6	2	2	2	6:6	0	8

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- US Ancona 1905
Italian Serie D - Group F
03.05.26	Ancona - Notaresco	1:1 ✺
26.04.26	L Aquila - Ancona	0:0 ✺
19.04.26	Ancona - Sammaurese	0:3 ✺
02.04.26	Ancona - Teramo	0:2 ✺
29.03.26	Vigor Senigallia - Ancona	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.8 TTLLW
- Notaresco Calcio
Italian Serie D - Group F
03.05.26	Ancona - Notaresco	1:1 ✺
26.04.26	Notaresco - San Marino Calcio	1:2 ✺
12.04.26	Notaresco - Ostia Mare	1:2 ✺
02.04.26	L Aquila - Notaresco	0:2 ✺
29.03.26	Teramo - Notaresco	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.2 TLLWL

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie D - Group F
03.05.26	Ancona - Notaresco	1:1
21.12.25	Notaresco - Ancona	1:1
13.04.25	Ancona - Notaresco	3:1
01.12.24	Notaresco - Ancona	0:1

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