Match Info

Serie D - Group F - Round 9

Date: 25 October 2026, Sunday 🏁 Finished


	Vigor Senigallia		Ancona

	1	X	2
	2.37	3.30	2.50
	2.42	3	2.65
	2.2	2.98	2.77
	2.36	3.27	2.75	Watch
	2.15	2.9	2.7
	2.3	3.22	2.66
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.3 ↓ (2.44)	3.11 ↑ (3.05)	2.67 ↓ (2.68)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 9.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Vigor Senigallia
38.5%

Draw
28.4%

Ancona
33.1%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

36.9%

29.5%

33.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

39.4%

31.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Vigor Senigallia has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.6%)

Ancona has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Vigor Senigallia than the current prediction. (+0.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ancona than the current prediction. (-1.6%)

Vigor Senigallia - Ancona Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 3)
10', 0 - 1, Serra A. ⚽,
31', 0 - 2, Calisto A. ⚽,
40', 0 - 3, Serra ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 2)
46', 0 - 4, Chiucchiuini L. ⚽,
63', 0 - 5, Pupo Posada Y. ⚽,
77', 🟥,

Preview

A high-stakes showdown between two teams from the upper tier of the standings (ranked 3rd in the Promotion - Serie D - Group F Playoffs and 6th).

Vigor Senigallia has experienced an up-and-down run in recent matches (last 5 matches: 2 wins).

Ancona is in good shape currently (last 5 matches: 3 wins).

The probabilities of winning are closely matched between the two contenders.

In the last 3 head-to-head meetings, Vigor Senigallia has recorded 1 win, 1 draw, and 1 loss, with a goal aggregate of 1:1 (averaging 0.3:0.3 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Vigor Senigallia against this opponent, the record stands at 1 win, 0 draws, and 1 loss, with 1:1 goals (averaging 0.5:0.5 per game).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	Ancona	9	5	2	2	17:8	9	17
5	Vigor Senigallia	9	5	1	3	17:17	0	16

Last Results with these Odds

Ancona - the odds 2.68 are the expected chance of winning is 33.61%, but this team recently wins 44% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Vigor Senigallia
Italian Serie D - Group F
18.10.26	Santegidiese - Vigor Senigallia	0:2 ✺
11.10.26	Vigor Senigallia - Atletico Ascoli	1:2 ✺
04.10.26	Teramo - Vigor Senigallia	6:4 ✺
27.09.26	Vigor Senigallia - Fossombrone	0:0 ✺
20.09.26	Termoli - Vigor Senigallia	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.8 WLLTW
- US Ancona 1905
Italian Serie D - Group F
18.10.26	Ancona - Fossombrone	2:3 ✺
11.10.26	Giulianova - Ancona	0:2 ✺
Coppa Italia Serie D
07.10.26	Ancona - Fossombrone	2:1 penalties ✺
Italian Serie D - Group F
04.10.26	Ancona - Trestina	2:0 ✺
27.09.26	Angelana - Ancona	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.6 LWWWT

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie D - Group F
29.03.26	Vigor Senigallia - Ancona	0:1
16.11.25	Ancona - Vigor Senigallia	0:0
29.09.24	Vigor Senigallia - Ancona	1:0

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