Match Info

Premier League - Round 24

Date: 13 March 2026, Friday 🏁 Finished

Location: Liv Bona Dea Arena (Baku) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Rahimov K. (Aze)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Azerbaijan	18:30	CBC Sport


	Araz Naxçıvan		Karvan

	1	X	2
	1.56	3.99	5.57
	1.61	3.78	4.98	Watch
	1.57	3.6	5
	1.63	3.83	5.17
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.59 ↑ (1.48)	3.8 ↓ (4.14)	5.18 ↓ (5.91)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 6.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Araz Naxçıvan
57.9%

Draw
24.3%

Karvan
17.8%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

62.2%

22.2%

15.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

49.3%

17.6%

19.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Araz Naxçıvan has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.3%)

Karvan has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Araz Naxçıvan than the current prediction. (-8.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Araz Naxçıvan that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Karvan than the current prediction. (+1.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
60%	0%	40%

Araz Naxçıvan - Karvan Predictions

Users Predictions: 5 users predict this event. Araz will win (votes: 3 - 60%). Karvan will win (votes: 2 - 40%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
94. Ahmadli T. (G) 5. Alxasov 6. Andrade P. 70. Boli C. 8. Diniyev C. 3. Hasanalizada B. (C) 4. Mammadov R. 17. Paro I. 23. Rodrigues N. 10. Santos F. 11. Simakala B.	99. Goncalves Mateus P. L. (G) 6. Abdullayev V. 21. Barker I. 20. Mickels J. 37. Ngwisani M. 16. Rustamli R. 5. Rustamov E. 2. Sno S. 11. Spence K. C. 19. Thompson G. 32. Yunuszada E. (C)
Substitutes
12. Avram C. (G) 77. Bruno Franco 33. Cafarov E. 19. Cohen B. 14. Iskandarov U. 7. Keyta H. 86. Piriyev I. 16. Ramon Machado	7. Abdullayev A. 17. Abdullayev S. 25. Bulud A. (G) 14. Cahangirov U. 4. Doyeni O. 1. Ibrahimov K. (G) 8. Kings P. 13. Masimov V. 42. Qadirzada I. 33. Turabov E.
Coaches
Demchenko A.	Mammadov F.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
14', Hasanalizada B. 🟨,
17', Simakala B. 🟨,
37', 1 - 0, Keyta H. ⚽,
40', 2 - 0, Simakala B. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
51', 2 - 1, Spence K. C. ⚽,
72', Paro I. ↓, Bruno Franco ↑,
73', Spence K. C. ↓, Cahangirov U. ↑,
75', Cahangirov U. 🟨,
82', Rustamli R. ↓, Abdullayev A. ↑,
85', Simakala B. ↓, Ramon Machado ↑,
86', Rodrigues N. ↓, Cohen B. ↑,
86', Diniyev C. 🟨,
90', Rustamov E. ↓, Kings P. ↑,

Preview

Araz has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Karvan is going through a rough patch (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

In this match, Araz is a strong favorite.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Araz won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 4:1. (average 2:0.5).

Including home match between the teams, Araz won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:1.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
12	Araz	9	0	2	7	7:19	-12	2

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Araz Naxçıvan PFK
Azerbaijan Premier League
08.03.26	Qarabağ Agdam - Araz Naxçıvan	6:0 ✺
27.02.26	Araz Naxçıvan - Zira	0:1 ✺
21.02.26	Karvan - Araz Naxçıvan	0:2 ✺
15.02.26	Araz Naxçıvan - Sumgayit	1:0 ✺
08.02.26	Sabah - Araz Naxçıvan	4:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.3 LLWWL
- Karvan FK
Azerbaijan Premier League
07.03.26	Karvan - Sumgayit	1:1 ✺
28.02.26	Gabala - Karvan	1:1 ✺
21.02.26	Karvan - Araz Naxçıvan	0:2 ✺
14.02.26	Zira - Karvan	1:0 ✺
09.02.26	Turan Tovuz - Karvan	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.7 TTLLL

Latest Head to Head

Azerbaijan Premier League
21.02.26	Karvan - Araz Naxçıvan	0:2
08.11.25	Araz Naxçıvan - Karvan	2:1

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