Match Info

Premier League - Round 23

Date: 7 March 2026, Saturday

Location: Yevlakh City Stadium (Yevlakh)

Referee: Aliyev A. (Aze)

Where to Watch on TV:


Azerbaijan	CBC Sport


	Karvan		Sumgayit

	1	X	2
	3.9	3.1	1.83
	3.5	3.15	1.95	Watch
	3.72	3.37	1.98
	3.66	3.22	1.99	Watch
	3.5	3.1	1.95
	3.6	3.22	1.95
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.65 ↓ (3.85)	3.19 ↓ (3.23)	1.94 ↑ (1.88)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 7.1%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Karvan
24.9%

Draw
28.4%

Sumgayit
46.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

23.5%

28.1%

48.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

22.9%

27.4%

49.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Karvan has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.4%)

Sumgayit has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Karvan than the current prediction. (-2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Sumgayit than the current prediction. (+2.8%)

Karvan - Sumgayit Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Sumgayit (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

#ad

Lineups

Starting Lineups
99. Goncalves Mateus P. L. (G) 6. Abdullayev V. 21. Barker I. 20. Mickels J. 37. Ngwisani M. 16. Rustamli R. 5. Rustamov E. 2. Sno S. 11. Spence K. C. 19. Thompson G. 32. Yunuszada E. (C)	22. Farzullayev K. (G) 8. Abdullazada S. (C) 21. Ahmadzada N. 7. Ahmadzada R. 6. Badolo C. 33. Beskorovaynyi D. 11. Jankovic A. 80. Keffel 71. Murata M. 75. Orujov N. 72. Senhadji R.
Substitutes
7. Abdullayev A. 17. Abdullayev S. 25. Bulud A. (G) 14. Cahangirov U. 4. Doyeni O. 1. Ibrahimov K. (G) 8. Kings P. 13. Masimov V. 42. Qadirzada I. 33. Turabov E.	12. Agamaliyev M. (G) 1. Cannatov M. (G) 25. Moumini A. 24. Muradly S. 29. Mustafaev E. 37. Orujali N. 97. Pashayev V. 95. Simon N.
Coaches
Mammadov F.	Ilic S.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (1 - 1)
51', 0 - 1, Abdullazada S. (Penalty Awarded),
66', Jankovic A. ↓, Mustafaev E. ↑,
66', Badolo C. ↓, Simon N. ↑,
67', Beskorovaynyi D. 🟨,
69', Rustamov E. ↓, Kings P. ↑,
72', Ahmadzada R. (Penalty Awarded),
75', Spence K. C. ↓, Abdullayev S. ↑,
76', Rustamli R. ↓, Cahangirov U. ↑,
78', Murata M. 🟨,
81', Ahmadzada N. ↓, Muradly S. ↑,
90+4', 1 - 1, Mickels J. ⚽,

Preview

Each of the two teams has experienced multiple losses lately.

In this match, Sumgayit is a strong favorite.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Karvan won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 2:9. (average 0.7:3).

Including home match between the teams, Karvan won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Karvan FK
Azerbaijan Premier League
28.02.26	Gabala - Karvan	1:1 ✺
21.02.26	Karvan - Araz Naxçıvan	0:2 ✺
14.02.26	Zira - Karvan	1:0 ✺
09.02.26	Turan Tovuz - Karvan	1:0 ✺
30.01.26	Karvan - Sumgayit	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.9 TLLLL
- Sumgayit FK
Azerbaijan Cup
03.03.26	Zira - Sumgayit	2:0 ✺
Azerbaijan Premier League
27.02.26	Kapaz - Sumgayit	3:0 ✺
20.02.26	Sumgayit - Gabala	0:0 ✺
15.02.26	Araz Naxçıvan - Sumgayit	1:0 ✺
08.02.26	Sumgayit - Zira	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLTLL

Latest Head to Head

Azerbaijan Premier League
30.01.26	Karvan - Sumgayit	0:2
18.10.25	Sumgayit - Karvan	4:1
Azerbaijan Cup
18.12.23	Sumgayit - Karvan	3:1

Upcoming Matches