Match Info

Premier League - Round 19

Date: 8 February 2026, Sunday

Location: Bank Respublika Arena (Masazır)

Where to Watch on TV:


Azerbaijan	CBC Sport


	Sabah		Araz Naxçıvan

	1	X	2
	1.45	3.9	6.1	Watch
	1.45	4.15	7.61
	1.43	4.12	6.88	Watch
	1.44	3.7	6.5
	1.41	3.85	7.5
	1.42	3.75	7
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.43 ↓ (1.72)	3.91 ↑ (3.38)	6.93 ↑ (4.5)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 6.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Sabah
63.6%

Draw
23.3%

Araz Naxçıvan
13.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

52.9%

26.9%

20.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

55.8%

25.5%

19.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Sabah has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+10.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Sabah's performance.

Araz Naxçıvan has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Araz Naxçıvan might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Sabah than the current prediction. (-7.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Sabah that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Araz Naxçıvan than the current prediction. (+6.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Araz Naxçıvan could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
90%	0%	10%

Sabah - Araz Naxçıvan Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -1.5 - Sabah (2.27) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Sabah will win (9 of 10 users predict this - 90%).
Confidence interval (95%): 71.41% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Sabah will win (5 of 5 users predict this - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 6 Selected Experts predict this event. Sabah (votes: 6 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
92. Pokatilov S. (C) 9. Aliyev K. 46. Isayev A. 13. Lepinjica I. 19. Malouda A. 27. Puchacz T. 7. Rakhmonaliyev U. 21. Simic V. 3. Solvet S. 40. Ygor Nogueira 80. Zedadka A.	94. Ahmadli T. (G) 24. Ahmadzada M. 5. Alxasov 6. Andrade P. 70. Boli C. 77. Bruno Franco 26. Buludov O. 8. Diniyev C. 3. Hasanalizada B. (C) 7. Keyta H. 11. Simakala B.
Substitutes
5. Dashdamirov R. 83. Ende S. 6. Khaybulaev A. 55. Mehbaliyev N. (G) 94. Mirzammadov R. (G) 17. Mutallimov T. 10. Nuriyev A. 22. Ould Khaled Z. 11. Parris K. 70. Sekidika J. 2. Seydiyev A.	. Avram C. (G) . Cohen B. . Isgandarov U. . Mammadov R. . Ramon Machado . Rodrigues N. . Santos F. . Wanderson
Coaches
Dambrauskas V.	Demchenko A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (3 - 0)
9', 1 - 0, Rakhmonaliyev U. (Penalty Awarded),
11', 2 - 0, Malouda A. ⚽,
16', 3 - 0, Aliyev K. ⚽,
37', Hasanalizada B. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
49', Ygor Nogueira 🟨,
58', Keyta H. ↓, Santos F. ↑,
58', Simakala B. ↓, Ramon Machado ↑,
59', Ahmadzada M. 🟨,
69', 4 - 0, Aliyev K. ⚽,
70', Ahmadzada M. ↓, Wanderson ↑,
70', Isayev A. ↓, Sekidika J. ↑,
71', Aliyev K. 🟨,
76', Aliyev K. ↓, Ende S. ↑,
76', Rakhmonaliyev U. ↓, Ould Khaled Z. ↑,
76', Ygor Nogueira ↓, Dashdamirov R. ↑,
76', Diniyev C. ↓, Cohen B. ↑,
76', Alxasov ↓, Mammadov R. ↑,
80', Andrade P. 🟨,
82', Buludov O. 🟨,
86', 4 - 1, Santos F. ⚽,
88', Malouda A. ↓, Parris K. ↑,

Preview

Get ready for a battle between the top and the middle of the table (ranked 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (Qualification: ) and 6).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Sabah won 1.

Sabah is currently enjoying a strong run with several victories in a row (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Araz has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Sabah may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Sabah is the undeniable favorite.

We predict that Sabah will win today's game, with odds of 1.5.

In the last 9 head-to-head matches, Sabah won 3 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 11:9. (average 1.2:1).

Including home matches between the teams, Sabah won 1 match, drew 3 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 6:4. (average 1.5:1).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
2	Sabah Baku	5	5	0	0	14:1	13	15
12	Araz	6	0	2	4	5:13	-8	2

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Sabah Baku FK
Azerbaijan Cup
04.02.26	Sabah - Gabala	0:0 ✺
Azerbaijan Premier League
31.01.26	Zira - Sabah	1:3 ✺
25.01.26	Sabah - Karvan	4:1 ✺
22.12.25	Sumgayit - Sabah	1:3 ✺
18.12.25	Sabah - Qarabağ Agdam	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.9 TWWWW
- Araz Naxçıvan PFK
Azerbaijan Premier League
01.02.26	Araz Naxçıvan - Neftchi Baku	0:4 ✺
23.01.26	İmişli - Araz Naxçıvan	2:2 ✺
21.12.25	Araz Naxçıvan - Shamakhi	2:0 ✺
14.12.25	Qarabağ Agdam - Araz Naxçıvan	5:1 ✺
09.12.25	Araz Naxçıvan - Kapaz	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.9 LTWLW

Latest Head to Head

Azerbaijan Premier League
25.10.25	Araz Naxçıvan - Sabah	2:2
03.05.25	Araz Naxçıvan - Sabah	1:1
04.03.25	Sabah - Araz Naxçıvan	2:2
14.12.24	Araz Naxçıvan - Sabah	0:1
05.10.24	Sabah - Araz Naxçıvan	1:1
05.05.24	Araz Naxçıvan - Sabah	0:1
02.03.24	Sabah - Araz Naxçıvan	2:0

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