Match Info

Premier League - Round 22

Date: 28 February 2026, Saturday

Location: Qäbälä Şähär Stadionu (Gabala)

Referee: Umudlu K. (Aze)

Where to Watch on TV:


Azerbaijan	CBC Sport


	Gabala		Karvan

	1	X	2
	1.72	3.3	4.25
	1.81	3.37	4.48
	1.77	3.49	4.24	Watch
	1.75	3.1	4.4
	1.72	3.32	4.59	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.75 ↑ (1.65)	3.32 ↓ (3.65)	4.39 ↓ (4.87)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 7.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Gabala
51.9%

Draw
27.4%

Karvan
20.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

55.8%

25.2%

18.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.4%

19.6%

24.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Gabala has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.9%)

Karvan has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Gabala than the current prediction. (-8.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Gabala that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Karvan than the current prediction. (+3.6%)

Gabala - Karvan Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Gabala (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Agayev S. (G) 27. Ahmadov E. 16. Amoah I. 50. Ba Loua A. 33. Keita S. 7. Manafov T. 14. Massoumou D. J. 28. Musayev M. (C) 30. Owusu P. 6. Sierra J. 8. Sissoko S.	99. Goncalves Mateus P. L. (G) 6. Abdullayev V. 21. Barker I. 20. Mickels J. 37. Ngwisani M. 16. Rustamli R. 5. Rustamov E. 2. Sno S. 11. Spence K. C. 19. Thompson G. 32. Yunuszada E. (C)
Substitutes
24. Akinade I. 13. Aliyev N. 93. Cafarov R. (G) 74. Damadayev S. 3. Eduardo Kunde 22. Iskandarov F. 11. Mammadov A. 70. Quimbila P. 66. Rashidov N. 12. Sangare I. 10. Shahniyarov S. 21. Shakarkhanov Z.	17. Abdullayev S. 25. Bulud A. (G) 14. Cahangirov U. 4. Doyeni O. 1. Ibrahimov K. (G) 8. Kings P. 13. Masimov V. 42. Qadirzada I. 33. Turabov E.
Coaches
Tskhadadze K.	Mammadov F.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
26', 0 - 1, Barker I. ⚽,
34', Sissoko S. ↓, Akinade I. ↑,
35', Goncalves Mateus P. L. 🟨,
37', 1 - 1, Keita S. (Penalty Awarded),
45', Thompson G. 🟨,
45+1', Rustamov E. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
67', Ba Loua A. ↓, Shahniyarov S. ↑,
74', Thompson G. ↓, Cahangirov U. ↑,
86', Spence K. C. ↓, Kings P. ↑,
88', Massoumou D. J. ↓, Sangare I. ↑,
88', Ahmadov E. ↓, Aliyev N. ↑,
89', Manafov T. ↓, Rashidov N. ↑,
90+1', Mickels J. ↓, Abdullayev S. ↑,
90+2', Sno S. ↓, Masimov V. ↑,
90+2', Rustamli R. ↓, Qadirzada I. ↑,

Preview

In this match, only outsiders will meet (ranked 11 and 12 in the zone Relegation ~ I Liqa).

Gabala is currently in poor form (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Karvan has been on a rough run of results (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Gabala may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Gabala is a strong favorite.

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Gabala won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 4:3. (average 1:0.8).

Including home match between the teams, Gabala won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:0.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
8	Gabala	6	1	1	4	2:7	-5	4

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FK Gabala
Azerbaijan Premier League
24.02.26	Gabala - Turan Tovuz	0:3 ✺
20.02.26	Sumgayit - Gabala	0:0 ✺
16.02.26	Gabala - Sabah	0:1 ✺
10.02.26	Neftchi Baku - Gabala	1:0 ✺
Azerbaijan Cup
04.02.26	Sabah - Gabala	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.5 LTLLT
- Karvan FK
Azerbaijan Premier League
21.02.26	Karvan - Araz Naxçıvan	0:2 ✺
14.02.26	Zira - Karvan	1:0 ✺
09.02.26	Turan Tovuz - Karvan	1:0 ✺
30.01.26	Karvan - Sumgayit	0:2 ✺
25.01.26	Sabah - Karvan	4:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLLLL

Latest Head to Head

Azerbaijan Premier League
15.08.25	Karvan - Gabala	1:1
Azerbaijan First Division
02.05.25	Karvan - Gabala	2:0
28.02.25	Gabala - Karvan	2:0
28.11.24	Karvan - Gabala	0:1

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