Match Info

Premier League - Round 21

Date: 21 February 2026, Saturday

Location: Yevlakh City Stadium (Yevlakh)

Where to Watch on TV:


Azerbaijan	CBC Sport


	Karvan		Araz Naxçıvan

	1	X	2
				Watch
	4.95	3.55	1.6	Watch
	4.68	3.46	1.71
	3.9	3.45	1.85	Watch
	5	3.4	1.62
	5.34	3.5	1.59
	4.5	3.4	1.68
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.73 ↑ (4.1)	3.46 ↓ (3.73)	1.68 ↓ (1.7)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 8.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Karvan
19.3%

Draw
26.3%

Araz Naxçıvan
54.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

22.1%

24.3%

53.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

21.9%

24.1%

54%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Karvan has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.8%)

Araz Naxçıvan has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Karvan than the current prediction. (+2.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Araz Naxçıvan than the current prediction. (-0.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
25%	0%	75%

Karvan - Araz Naxçıvan Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Karvan will win (votes: 1 - 25%). Araz will win (votes: 3 - 75%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Araz (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
99. Goncalves Mateus P. L. (G) 6. Abdullayev V. (C) 21. Barker I. 14. Cahangirov U. 37. Ngwisani M. 16. Rustamli R. 5. Rustamov E. 2. Sno S. 11. Spence K. C. 19. Thompson G. 33. Turabov E.	12. Avram C. (G) 24. Ahmadzada M. 5. Alxasov 6. Andrade P. 26. Buludov O. 8. Diniyev C. 3. Hasanalizada B. (C) 7. Keyta H. 4. Mammadov R. 16. Ramon Machado 10. Santos F.
Substitutes
17. Abdullayev S. 25. Bulud A. (G) 4. Doyeni O. 10. Durrant S. 1. Ibrahimov K. (G) 8. Kings P. 13. Masimov V. 42. Qadirzada I. 32. Yunuszada E.	94. Ahmadli T. (G) 70. Boli C. 77. Bruno Franco 19. Cohen B. 14. Isgandarov U. 17. Paro I. 23. Rodrigues N. 11. Simakala B.
Coaches
Mammadov F.	Demchenko A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
32', 0 - 1, Santos F. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
51', 0 - 2, Santos F. (Penalty Awarded),
55', Rustamli R. ↓, Durrant S. ↑,
60', Turabov E. ↓, Abdullayev S. ↑,
64', Keyta H. ↓, Boli C. ↑,
67', Cahangirov U. ↓, Kings P. ↑,
67', Abdullayev V. ↓, Qadirzada I. ↑,
72', Santos F. ↓, Isgandarov U. ↑,
77', Ahmadzada M. ↓, Cohen B. ↑,
77', Ramon Machado ↓, Simakala B. ↑,
78', Diniyev C. ↓, Rodrigues N. ↑,
84', Alxasov 🟨,

Preview

An outsider and a mid-table team will play in this game (ranked 12 in the zone Relegation ~ I Liqa and 7).

Karvan is going through a poor run of results (last 5 games: 0 wins).

In recent matches, Araz has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

In this match, Araz is seen as the favorite.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Karvan won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 1:2.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
12	Araz	6	0	2	4	5:13	-8	2

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Karvan FK
Azerbaijan Premier League
14.02.26	Zira - Karvan	1:0 ✺
09.02.26	Turan Tovuz - Karvan	1:0 ✺
30.01.26	Karvan - Sumgayit	0:2 ✺
25.01.26	Sabah - Karvan	4:1 ✺
Club Friendly
17.01.26	Karvan - Kapaz	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.5 LLLLT
- Araz Naxçıvan PFK
Azerbaijan Premier League
15.02.26	Araz Naxçıvan - Sumgayit	1:0 ✺
08.02.26	Sabah - Araz Naxçıvan	4:1 ✺
01.02.26	Araz Naxçıvan - Neftchi Baku	0:4 ✺
23.01.26	İmişli - Araz Naxçıvan	2:2 ✺
21.12.25	Araz Naxçıvan - Shamakhi	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8 WLLTW

Latest Head to Head

Azerbaijan Premier League
08.11.25	Araz Naxçıvan - Karvan	2:1

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