Match Info

Premier League - Round 20

Date: 15 February 2026, Sunday

Location: Liv Bona Dea Arena (Baku)

Referee: Masiyev E. (Aze)

Where to Watch on TV:


Azerbaijan	CBC Sport


	Araz Naxçıvan		Sumgayit

	1	X	2
	2.62	2.88	2.62	Watch
	2.71	3.05	2.74
	2.69	2.93	2.68	Watch
	2.63	2.75	2.7
	2.63	2.8	2.66	Watch
	2.62	2.83	2.66
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.65 ↑ (2.41)	2.87 ↓ (2.99)	2.68 ↓ (2.86)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 6.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Araz Naxçıvan
34.3%

Draw
31.7%

Sumgayit
34%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

37.8%

30.4%

31.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Araz Naxçıvan has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.5%)

Sumgayit has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.2%)

Araz Naxçıvan - Sumgayit Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Avram C. (G) 24. Ahmadzada M. 5. Alxasov 70. Boli C. 26. Buludov O. 19. Cohen B. 8. Diniyev C. 3. Hasanalizada B. 4. Mammadov R. 16. Ramon Machado 10. Santos F.	1. Cannatov M. (G) 7. Ahmadzada R. 33. Beskorovaynyi D. 3. Haqverdi H. 11. Jankovic A. 80. Keffel 19. Kehat R. 25. Moumini A. 71. Murata M. 10. Ninkovic N. 9. Ramalingom A.
Substitutes
94. Ahmadli T. (G) 77. Bruno Franco 76. Hasanov S. (G) 14. Isgandarov U. 7. Keyta H. 23. Rodrigues N. 11. Simakala B.	8. Abdullazada S. 12. Agamaliyev M. (G) 21. Ahmadzada N. 6. Badolo C. 22. Farzullayev K. (G) 24. Muradly S. 29. Mustafaev E. 37. Orujali N. 75. Orujov N. 97. Pashayev V. 72. Senhadji R. 23. Vasquez R.
Coaches
Demchenko A.	Ilic S.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
45+5', 1 - 0, Ramon Machado (Penalty Awarded),
2nd Half (0 - 0)
60', Boli C. ↓, Keyta H. ↑,
62', Ahmadzada M. 🟨,
66', Mammadov R. 🟨,
66', Diniyev C. 🟨,
68', Cohen B. ↓, Simakala B. ↑,
68', Kehat R. ↓, Vasquez R. ↑,
68', Ninkovic N. ↓, Abdullazada S. ↑,
74', Ramalingom A. 🟥,
75', Jankovic A. ↓, Badolo C. ↑,
82', Ahmadzada R. ↓, Mustafaev E. ↑,
85', Santos F. ↓, Isgandarov U. ↑,
85', Ramon Machado ↓, Rodrigues N. ↑,
87', Alxasov 🟨,
90+2', Haqverdi H. 🟨,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Araz won 3.

Both teams are currently in poor form.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

In the last 10 head-to-head matches, Araz won 3 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 8:9. (average 0.8:0.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Araz won 2 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 5:2. (average 1.3:0.5).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
12	Araz	6	0	2	4	5:13	-8	2

Last Results with these Odds

Sumgayit - the odds 2.86 are the expected chance of winning is 31.79%, but this team recently wins 43% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Araz Naxçıvan PFK
Azerbaijan Premier League
08.02.26	Sabah - Araz Naxçıvan	4:1 ✺
01.02.26	Araz Naxçıvan - Neftchi Baku	0:4 ✺
23.01.26	İmişli - Araz Naxçıvan	2:2 ✺
21.12.25	Araz Naxçıvan - Shamakhi	2:0 ✺
14.12.25	Qarabağ Agdam - Araz Naxçıvan	5:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.4 LLTWL
- Sumgayit FK
Azerbaijan Premier League
08.02.26	Sumgayit - Zira	2:3 ✺
Azerbaijan Cup
04.02.26	Sumgayit - Zira	0:0 ✺
Azerbaijan Premier League
30.01.26	Karvan - Sumgayit	0:2 ✺
25.01.26	Turan Tovuz - Sumgayit	2:1 ✺
Club Friendly
09.01.26	Paksi SE - Sumgayit	5:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.9 LTWLL

Latest Head to Head

Azerbaijan Premier League
02.11.25	Sumgayit - Araz Naxçıvan	3:2
07.04.25	Araz Naxçıvan - Sumgayit	2:0
01.02.25	Sumgayit - Araz Naxçıvan	0:0
10.11.24	Araz Naxçıvan - Sumgayit	1:0
30.08.24	Sumgayit - Araz Naxçıvan	0:1
31.03.24	Sumgayit - Araz Naxçıvan	1:0
28.01.24	Araz Naxçıvan - Sumgayit	1:1

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