Match Info

AZERBAIJAN: Premier League - Round 24

Date: 22 February 2025, Saturday

Location: Nakhchivan City Stadium (Nakhchivan)

Referee: Hajiyev F. (Aze)

Where to Watch on TV:


Azerbaijan	CBC Sport


	Araz Naxçıvan		Səbail

	1	X	2
	1.76	3.2	4.5	Watch
	1.77	3.29	5.01
	1.72	3.33	4.87
	1.7	3.3	5
	1.69	3.28	4.94	Watch
	1.76	3.2	4.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.73 ↑ (1.49)	3.27 ↓ (3.75)	4.8 ↓ (6.29)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 6.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Araz Naxçıvan
52.9%

Draw
28.1%

Səbail
19.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

61.2%

24.3%

14.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

63.2%

23.5%

14%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Araz Naxçıvan has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Araz Naxçıvan's form might have worsened.

Səbail has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Araz Naxçıvan than the current prediction. (+10.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Araz Naxçıvan, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Səbail than the current prediction. (-5.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Səbail, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Araz Naxçıvan - Səbail Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Avram C. (G) 34. Abbasov U. 6. Abdullayev V. (C) 9. Allach A. 2. Alxasov 10. Benny 17. Paro I. 5. Qarayev Q. 23. Rodrigues N. 97. Santos F. 29. Wanderson	1. Quliyev H. (G) 11. Abdullazada R. 14. Allouch S. 20. Celik M. 3. Lytvyn D. 7. Maddi 96. Muradov I. 77. Nabiyev F. 74. Nabiyev Y. (C) 16. Rustamov E. 5. Sofir G.
Substitutes
71. Agalarov S. 94. Ahmadli T. (G) 24. Ahmadzada M. 99. Ahmadzadeh R. (G) 8. Carlos Jatoba 7. Isgandarov U. 57. Mammadov E. 21. Meza Colli C. 22. Mustafayev E. 11. Qurbanov B. 20. Valizada T.	22. Abbasov M. 19. Abdullayev S. 18. Ahmadov S. 10. Gomis D. 97. Mammadov O. 25. Mammadzada N. (G) 12. Mustabazada A. (G) 99. Nshuti I. 83. Quliyev N. 88. Shiraliyev H.
Coaches
Bakshiev E.	Huseynov C.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
3', Rustamov E. 🟨,
17', Abbasov U. 🟨,
27', Rodrigues N. 🟨,
34', Wanderson 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
61', Abdullayev V. ↓, Ahmadzada M. ↑,
61', Rodrigues N. ↓, Meza Colli C. ↑,
62', 🟨,
63', Avram C. 🟨,
69', Celik M. ↓, Ahmadov S. ↑,
75', Allach A. ↓, Isgandarov U. ↑,
77', Abdullazada R. ↓, Gomis D. ↑,
81', Qarayev Q. ↓, Carlos Jatoba ↑,
86', Sofir G. ↓, Quliyev N. ↑,
86', Nabiyev F. ↓, Mammadov O. ↑,
90+2', 🟨,
90+2', Bakshiev E. 🟨,

Preview

Last 5 head-to-head matches Araz Naxçıvan won 2.

The game of competitors is shaky now.

In this match Araz Naxçıvan is a favorite.

Last 6 head-to-head matches Araz Naxçıvan won 2 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 8:8 (average 1.3:1.3).

Including matches at home between the teams Araz Naxçıvan won 1 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 4:5 (average 1.3:1.7).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Araz Naxçıvan PFK
Azerbaijan Premier League
16.02.25	Turan Tovuz - Araz Naxçıvan	1:0 ✺
10.02.25	Araz Naxçıvan - Kapaz	0:0 ✺
Azerbaijan Cup
06.02.25	Araz Naxçıvan - Zira	1:0 ✺
Azerbaijan Premier League
01.02.25	Sumgayit - Araz Naxçıvan	0:0 ✺
26.01.25	Araz Naxçıvan - Neftchi Baku	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.5 LTWTW
- Səbail FK
Azerbaijan Premier League
17.02.25	Səbail - Sabah	0:0 ✺
11.02.25	Qarabağ Agdam - Səbail	5:0 ✺
Azerbaijan Cup
06.02.25	Səbail - Qarabağ Agdam	0:1 ✺
Azerbaijan Premier League
01.02.25	Turan Tovuz - Səbail	1:1 ✺
25.01.25	Səbail - Kapaz	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.8 TLLTW

Latest Head to Head

Azerbaijan Premier League
07.12.24	Səbail - Araz Naxçıvan	0:2
27.09.24	Araz Naxçıvan - Səbail	3:2
21.04.24	Araz Naxçıvan - Səbail	0:2
17.02.24	Səbail - Araz Naxçıvan	2:2
02.12.23	Araz Naxçıvan - Səbail	1:1
24.09.23	Səbail - Araz Naxçıvan	1:0

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