Match Info

Premier League - Round 8

Date: 16 October 2026, Friday 🏁 Finished

Location: Mehdi Huseynzade Stadium (Sumqayit) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Hasanli V. (Aze)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Azerbaijan	19:00	CBC Sport, Idman TV


	Sumgayit		Araz Naxçıvan

	1	X	2
	2.30	3.10	2.75
	2.32	3.00	2.75
	2.39	3.37	2.90
	2.27	3.29	2.92	Watch
	2.30	3.30	2.75
	2.43	2.98	3.10
	2.37	3.10	2.80
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.34 ↑ (2.05)	3.16 ↓ (3.46)	2.85 ↓ (3.21)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Sumgayit
39.1%

Draw
28.9%

Araz Naxçıvan
32%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

44.8%

26.6%

28.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

39.1%

23.2%

32.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Sumgayit has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Sumgayit's form might have worsened.

Araz Naxçıvan has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.4%)

The ML Model estimate for Sumgayit aligns with the current prediction.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Araz Naxçıvan than the current prediction. (+0.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Sumgayit - Araz Naxçıvan Predictions

Users Predictions: 3 users predict this event. Sumgayit will win (votes: 3 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
16. Johansson M. (G) 17. Ahmadzada N. 42. Badolo C. 11. Bangre M. 80. Keffel 55. Lucas Black 29. Mustafaev E. 5. Renan Santana 4. Suliman E. (C) 21. Tiago Almeida 10. Vasquez R.	99. Ahmadli T. (G) 8. Ahmadzada M. 6. Andrade P. (C) 10. Boli C. 5. Dumancic L. 23. Fernandez A. 36. Kane M. 27. Letic B. 11. Mara M. 17. Paro I. 9. Salyanskiy A.
Substitutes
23. Ahmadov R. 12. Arikhov A. (G) 27. Barker I. 22. Farzullayev K. (G) 3. Haqverdi H. 19. Kehat R. 37. Orucali N. 75. Orucov N. 97. Pashayev V. 20. Suleymali A.	13. Alizada Q. 1. Augusto A. (G) 12. Bruno Franco 26. Buludov O. 14. Isgandarov U. 7. Muradov R. 29. Nuriyev C. 21. Piriyev I. 2. Rzayev A. 19. Sudi A. 53. Tagiyev F.
Coaches
Candido F.	Maksimov Y.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
21', Paro I. ↓, Bruno Franco ↑,
32', 0 - 1, Fernandez A. ⚽,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
62', 1 - 1, Vasquez R. ⚽,
65', Boli C. ↓, Muradov R. ↑,
80', Fernandez A. ↓, Nuriyev C. ↑,
82', 2 - 1, Ahmadzada N. ⚽,
84', Mustafaev E. ↓, Kehat R. ↑,
84', Lucas Black 🟨,
84', Salyanskiy A. 🟨,
85', Salyanskiy A. 🟨,
86', Vasquez R. ↓, Suleymali A. ↑,
88', Keffel 🟨,
90+1', Ahmadzada N. ↓, Barker I. ↑,
90+1', Bangre M. ↓, Orucov N. ↑,
90+4', Suleymali A. 🟨,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Sumgayit won 2.

Sumgayit has experienced an up-and-down run in recent matches (last 5 matches: 1 win).

Araz has suffered a run of successive defeats (last 5 matches: 0 wins).

Sumgayit is expected to hold a slight competitive edge in this match.

In the last 12 head-to-head meetings, Sumgayit has recorded 5 wins, 3 draws, and 4 losses, with a goal aggregate of 11:10 (averaging 0.9:0.8 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Sumgayit against this opponent, the record stands at 5 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss, with 9:4 goals (averaging 1.3:0.6 per game).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
12	Araz	9	0	2	7	7:19	-12	2

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Sumgayit FK
Azerbaijan Premier League
10.10.26	Sumgayit - Gabala	4:1 ✺
20.09.26	Kapaz - Sumgayit	1:1 ✺
12.09.26	Sumgayit - Shamakhi	1:1 ✺
06.09.26	Turan Tovuz - Sumgayit	2:1 ✺
31.08.26	Sumgayit - Qarabağ Agdam	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.5 WTTLL
- Araz Naxçıvan PFK
Azerbaijan Premier League
09.10.26	Araz Naxçıvan - Kapaz	0:2 ✺
20.09.26	Shamakhi - Araz Naxçıvan	2:1 ✺
13.09.26	Araz Naxçıvan - Turan Tovuz	2:2 ✺
06.09.26	Qarabağ Agdam - Araz Naxçıvan	3:2 ✺
31.08.26	Araz Naxçıvan - Sabah	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5 LLTLL

Latest Head to Head

Azerbaijan Premier League
09.05.26	Sumgayit - Araz Naxçıvan	2:1
15.02.26	Araz Naxçıvan - Sumgayit	1:0
02.11.25	Sumgayit - Araz Naxçıvan	3:2
07.04.25	Araz Naxçıvan - Sumgayit	2:0
01.02.25	Sumgayit - Araz Naxçıvan	0:0
10.11.24	Araz Naxçıvan - Sumgayit	1:0
30.08.24	Sumgayit - Araz Naxçıvan	0:1

Sumgayit - Araz Naxçıvan