Match Info

Conference League - Qualification - Quarter-finals

Date: 24 July 2025, Thursday 🏁 Finished

Location: Arena Arda (Kardzhali) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Sariev B. (Kaz)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Bulgaria	19:00	Diema Sport 2, Diema Sport, Play Diema Xtra


	Arda Kardzhali		HJK

	1	X	2
	2.2	3.4	2.75	Watch
	2.25	3.3	2.8	Watch
	2.25	3.4	3	Watch
	2.34	3.37	2.88
	2.41	3.26	2.88	Watch
	2.3	3	3.1
	2.32	3.49	3.09	Watch
	2.55	3.2	2.7
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.33 ↓ (2.44)	3.3 ↑ (3.06)	2.9 ↑ (2.61)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 4.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Arda Kardzhali
39.9%

Draw
28.1%

HJK
32%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

36.6%

29.2%

34.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38.7%

27.6%

32.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Arda Kardzhali has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.3%)

HJK has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Arda Kardzhali than the current prediction. (-1.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for HJK than the current prediction. (+0.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
36%	36%	28%

Arda Kardzhali - HJK Predictions

Users Predictions: 18 users predict this event. Arda will win (votes: 8 - 44.4%). HJK will win (votes: 6 - 33.3%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 22.2%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Arda: 21.4% – 67.4%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Arda (votes: 1 - 25%). HJK (votes: 2 - 50%). Tie (votes: 1 - 25%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTS - yes (votes: 2 - 66.7%) .

DNB - Arda (1.62) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - under (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 5 Selected Experts predict this event. Arda (votes: 2 - 40%). HJK (votes: 2 - 40%). Tie (votes: 1 - 20%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Gospodinov A. (C) 21. Velev V. 93. Eboa F. 18. Huseynov C. 35. Velkovski D. 20. Yusein S. 39. Vutov A. 80. Kotev L. 99. Karagaren B. 9. Nikolov G. 33. Tilev I.	25. Nijhuis T. (G) 28. Ylitolva M. 3. Antzoulas G. 6. Tikkanen V. 2. Lyons-Foster B. 8. Kanellopoulos G. 4. Ring A. (C) 10. Lingman L. 99. Michel B. 20. Pukki T. 7. Hostikka S.
Substitutes
26. Akandzha B. 2. Gustavo Cascardo 4. Idowu D. 30. Kazakov I. 10. Kovachev S. 15. Kyamil E. 45. Mane I. 12. Nedelchev I. (G) 27. Todev B. 92. Yusuf M. (G)	17. Besuijen V. 24. Boamah M. 15. Kallinen J. 27. Kouassivi-Benissan K. 21. Mentu P. 42. Meriluoto K. 1. Ost J. (G) 13. Simojoki K.
Coaches
Tunchev A.	Nuutinen M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
33', Karagaren B. 🟨,
34', Vutov A. 🟨,
41', Kanellopoulos G. 🟨,
44', Pukki T. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
47', Huseynov C. 🟨,
51', Eboa F. ↓, Idowu D. ↑,
60', Pukki T. ↓, Meriluoto K. ↑,
61', Kanellopoulos G. ↓, Kallinen J. ↑,
61', Hostikka S. ↓, Besuijen V. ↑,
66', Vutov A. ↓, Kovachev S. ↑,
76', Yusein S. ↓, Gustavo Cascardo ↑,
76', Nikolov G. ↓, Mane I. ↑,
80', Michel B. ↓, Kouassivi-Benissan K. ↑,
84', Lingman L. ↓, Mentu P. ↑,
86', Kotev L. 🟨,

Preview

1st leg.

Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.

HJK may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Arda has had a series of home games.

Arda is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

Recently, the teams have not faced each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Arda Kardzhali
Bulgarian Parva Liga
18.07.25	CSKA 1948 Sofia - Arda Kardzhali	1:0 ✺
Club Friendly
11.07.25	Arda Kardzhali - Beitar Jerusalem	1:2 ✺
08.07.25	Arda Kardzhali - Septemvri Sofia	1:2 ✺
02.07.25	Arda Kardzhali - Montana	2:0 ✺
27.06.25	Arda Kardzhali - Sportist Svoge	4:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.7 LLLWW
- HJK Helsinki
Finnish Veikkausliiga
20.07.25	HJK - Oulu	3:1 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
17.07.25	HJK - NSÍ Runavík	5:0 ET ✺
10.07.25	NSÍ Runavík - HJK	4:0 ✺
Finnish Veikkausliiga
05.07.25	VPS Vaasa - HJK	0:2 ✺
02.07.25	HJK - FF Jaro	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.7 WWLWL

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