Match Info

Tercera RFEF - Group 4 - Round 4

Date: 26 September 2026, Saturday 🏁 Finished


	Aretxabaleta		Derio

	1	X	2
	2.75	3.10	2.30
	2.55	2.85	2.43
	2.97	3.10	2.33
	2.8	3.17	2.41	Watch
	2.90	3.00	2.30
	2.74	3.35	2.46
	2.70	3.20	2.25
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.77 ↑ (2.5)	3.11 ↑ (2.99)	2.35 ↓ (2.61)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Aretxabaleta
32.6%

Draw
29%

Derio
38.4%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

35.8%

29.9%

34.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Aretxabaleta has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.2%)

Derio has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.1%)

Aretxabaleta - Derio Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
25', 1 - 0, ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 2)
57', 1 - 1, ⚽,
81', 1 - 2, ⚽,

Preview

Performances by Derio have been somewhat unpredictable lately (last 5 matches: 2 wins).

Derio may face physical fatigue compared to their opponent, having played more matches in recent days.

The probabilities of winning are closely matched between the two contenders.

In the last 4 head-to-head meetings, Aretxabaleta has recorded 0 wins, 0 draws, and 4 losses, with a goal aggregate of 1:6 (averaging 0.3:1.5 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Aretxabaleta against this opponent, the record stands at 0 wins, 0 draws, and 2 losses, with 1:3 goals (averaging 0.5:1.5 per game).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	Derio	8	4	3	1	10:6	4	15
6	UD Aretxabaleta	8	4	2	2	10:7	3	14

Last Results with these Odds

Derio - the odds 2.61 are the expected chance of winning is 34.3%, but this team recently wins 75% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- UD Aretxabaleta
Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 4
19.09.26	Durango - Aretxabaleta	0:0 ✺
13.09.26	Aretxabaleta - Beasain	0:0 ✺
05.09.26	Touring KE - Aretxabaleta	0:1 ✺
15.04.26	Pasaia - Aretxabaleta	3:2 ✺
11.04.26	Aretxabaleta - Lagun Onak	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 17.7 TTWLW
- CD Derio
Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 4
20.09.26	Derio - Santurtzi	2:0 ✺
Spanish Copa Federacion
16.09.26	Derio - Salamanca	3:5 AET ✺
Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 4
12.09.26	San Ignacio - Derio	1:1 ✺
Spanish Copa Federacion
09.09.26	Compostela - Derio	1:2 penalties ✺
Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 4
05.09.26	Derio - Real Sociedad C	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.1 WLTWT

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 4
15.03.26	Aretxabaleta - Derio	1:2
31.10.25	Derio - Aretxabaleta	1:0
15.03.25	Derio - Aretxabaleta	2:0
01.11.24	Aretxabaleta - Derio	0:1

Aretxabaleta - Derio