Match Info

Liga Profesional - Clausura - Round 11

Date: 4 October 2026, Sunday

Location: Estadio Diego Armando Maradona (Buenos Aires)

Referee: Gariano A. (Arg)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	AFA Play, ESPN, ESPN Premium, HBO Max, TNT Sports
South-america	ViX Latin America
Usa	Fanatiz, FOX Deportes, FOX Deportes
Venezuela	Inter
World	TyC Sports Internacional


	Argentinos Juniors		Tigre

	1	X	2
	1.96	3.00	4.75	Watch
	2.00	3.00	4.20
	1.80	3.25	4.90	Watch
	2.04	3.12	4.68
	1.86	3.15	5	Watch
	1.98	3.05	4.60
	1.97	3.01	5.01	Watch
	1.97	3.00	4.30
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.95 ↑ (1.93)	3.07 ↓ (3.17)	4.68 ↑ (4.45)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 2.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Argentinos Juniors
48.8%

Draw
30.9%

Tigre
20.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

49%

29.8%

21.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

47.7%

30.6%

21.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Argentinos Juniors has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.2%)

Tigre has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Argentinos Juniors than the current prediction. (-1.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Tigre than the current prediction. (+1.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
87.5%	6.2%	6.2%

Argentinos Juniors - Tigre Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +0.5 - Tigre (1.87) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 0.5, 1st Half - over (1.53) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

New Consensus by Tipsters:

O/U 2.5 - over (2.88) (votes: 80%) ⭐ Best Value.

Users Predictions: Argentinos Juniors will win (14 of 16 users predict this - 87.5%).
Confidence interval (95%): 71.29% – 100%.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Tigre (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Siri Payer G. (G) 17. Paredes F. 23. Mendoza M. 16. Alvarez F. 20. Prieto S. 15. Gutierrez K. 8. Lopez H. 19. Gimenez M. 11. Oroz N. (C) 9. Veron G. 27. Molina T.	12. Zenobio F. T. (G) 4. Moreno V. 2. Laso J. (C) 20. Barrionuevo A. 24. Alvarez F. 10. Saralegui J. 27. Gonzalez S. 5. Leyes B. 22. Lopez S. 29. Russo I. 30. Domina J.
Substitutes
36. Bouhier G. 26. Bravo C. 5. Carrizo F. 22. Coronel K. 28. Gho J. 4. Godoy E. 48. Jainikoski F. 34. Kida R. 18. Mancuello F. 1. Mangiaut A. (G) 7. Porcel D. 6. Vazquez F.	18. Fernandez M. 8. Garay M. 21. Medina S. 40. Minniti L. 26. Morales L. (G) 19. Oviedo A. 50. Peluffo I. 23. Requena G. 11. Serrago T. 17. Soto G. 25. Subiabre I. 32. Villalba J.
Coaches
Diez N.	Dabove D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
6', 1 - 0, Gutierrez K. ⚽, Gimenez M. (A),
42', 2 - 0, Veron G. ⚽, Prieto S. (A),
45+5', Saralegui J. (Penalty Awarded),
2nd Half (0 - 1)
57', 2 - 1, Domina J. ⚽, Saralegui J. (A),
58', Saralegui J. ↓, Peluffo I. ↑,
60', Gimenez M. ↓, Carrizo F. ↑,
72', Lopez H. ↓, Porcel D. ↑,
72', Veron G. ↓, Jainikoski F. ↑,
76', Paredes F. 🟨,
77', Paredes F. ↓, Vazquez F. ↑,
78', Lopez S. 🟨,
83', Oroz N. 🟨,
85', Moreno V. ↓, Fernandez M. ↑,
85', Russo I. ↓, Oviedo A. ↑,
85', Gonzalez S. ↓, Garay M. ↑,
88', Domina J. 🟨,

Preview

An intriguing matchup between an upper-bracket team and a mid-table rival (ranked 1st in the Promotion - Liga Profesional (Clausura - Playoffs - 1/8 - finals) and 10th).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Argentinos Juniors won 2.

Argentinos Juniors has experienced an up-and-down run in recent matches (last 5 matches: 1 win).

Tigre is experiencing a dip in performance (last 5 matches: 1 win).

Bookmakers give the edge to Argentinos Juniors for this game.

In the last 18 head-to-head meetings, Argentinos Juniors has recorded 7 wins, 4 draws, and 7 losses, with a goal aggregate of 14:18 (averaging 0.8:1 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Argentinos Juniors against this opponent, the record stands at 5 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss, with 7:5 goals (averaging 0.9:0.6 per game).

Outrights of Argentinian Liga Profesional for now

Argentinos Jrs: 7.41% Tigre: 0.78%

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Argentinos Juniors
Argentinian Liga Profesional
20.09.26	Rosario Central - Argentinos Juniors	1:0 ✺
13.09.26	Argentinos Juniors - Gimnasia La Plata	1:1 ✺
07.09.26	Barracas Central - Argentinos Juniors	0:0 ✺
30.08.26	Argentinos Juniors - Aldosivi	2:1 ✺
24.08.26	Lanús - Argentinos Juniors	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.8 LTTWT
- CA Tigre
Argentinian Liga Profesional
20.09.26	Vélez Sársfield - Tigre	3:2 ✺
13.09.26	Tigre - Rosario Central	0:1 ✺
05.09.26	Gimnasia La Plata - Tigre	2:1 ✺
31.08.26	Tigre - Barracas Central	0:0 ✺
24.08.26	Tigre - Central Córdoba	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.6 LLLTW

Latest Head to Head

Argentinian Liga Profesional
15.03.26	Tigre - Argentinos Juniors	1:1
20.07.25	Tigre - Argentinos Juniors	2:1
30.01.25	Argentinos Juniors - Tigre	1:0
18.07.24	Argentinos Juniors - Tigre	0:2
05.03.23	Tigre - Argentinos Juniors	0:1
11.07.22	Argentinos Juniors - Tigre	2:1
Argentinian Copa de la Liga Profesional
15.05.22	Tigre - Argentinos Juniors	2:1 penalties

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