Match Info

Club Friendly

Date: 11 July 2026, Saturday


	Arka Gdynia		Olimpia Grudziądz

	1	X	2
	1.80	3.40	3.60
	1.73	3.60	3.90
	1.81	3.51	3.64
	5.42	4.81	1.45	Watch
	1.78	3.45	3.60
	1.75	3.54	4.06	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.38 ↑ (1.57)	3.72 ↓ (4.1)	3.38 ↓ (4.81)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 8.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Arka Gdynia
42.6%

Draw
27.3%

Olimpia Grudziądz
30.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

58.5%

22.4%

19.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

59.1%

22.6%

18.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Arka Gdynia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-15.9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Arka Gdynia's form might have worsened.

Olimpia Grudziądz has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+11%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Olimpia Grudziądz's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Arka Gdynia than the current prediction. (+16.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Arka Gdynia, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Olimpia Grudziądz than the current prediction. (-11.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Olimpia Grudziądz, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Arka Gdynia - Olimpia Grudziądz Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 4)
2', 0 - 1, ⚽,
4', 0 - 2, ⚽,
15', 1 - 2, Gutkovskis V. (Penalty Awarded),
29', 1 - 3, ⚽,
31', 1 - 4, ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
60', 2 - 4, ⚽,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Arka won 4.

Arka has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Olimpia is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Arka may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Arka is considered a favorite.

In the last 15 head-to-head matches, Arka won 11 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 35:13. (average 2.3:0.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Arka won 6 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 21:11. (average 2.1:1.1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Arka Gdynia
Club Friendly
03.07.26	Arka Gdynia - Petrolul Ploieşti	2:0 ✺
28.06.26	GKS Katowice - Arka Gdynia	2:0 ✺
Polish Ekstraklasa
23.05.26	Raków Częstochowa - Arka Gdynia	3:0 ✺
18.05.26	Arka Gdynia - Termalica Nieciecza	2:3 ✺
13.05.26	Arka Gdynia - Górnik Zabrze	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.6 WLLLT
- Olimpia Grudziądz
Club Friendly
04.07.26	Lechia Gdańsk - Olimpia Grudziądz	1:3 ✺
30.06.26	Olimpia Grudziądz - Petrolul Ploieşti	4:1 ✺
Polish Division 2
02.06.26	Olimpia Grudziądz - Sandecja Nowy Sącz	1:2 ✺
30.05.26	Swit Skolwin - Olimpia Grudziądz	0:1 ✺
24.05.26	Olimpia Grudziądz - Hutnik	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 17.8 WWLWT

Latest Head to Head

Club Friendly
18.01.25	Arka Gdynia - Olimpia Grudziądz	5:3
13.07.24	Arka Gdynia - Olimpia Grudziądz	2:2
26.01.22	Arka Gdynia - Olimpia Grudziądz	1:0
16.11.19	Arka Gdynia - Olimpia Grudziądz	4:1
06.09.19	Arka Gdynia - Olimpia Grudziądz	2:0
06.10.17	Olimpia Grudziądz - Arka Gdynia	0:5
Polish Division 1
30.04.16	Arka Gdynia - Olimpia Grudziądz	0:0

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