Match Info

Ekstraklasa - Round 34

Date: 23 May 2026, Saturday

Location: zondacrypto Arena (Częstochowa)

Referee: Stefanski D. (Pol)

Where to Watch on TV:


Canada	beIN Connect
Finland	Veikkaus TV
Poland	CANAL+ Sport 3, Ekstraklasa TV
Usa	beIN Connect, Fanatiz


	Raków Częstochowa		Arka Gdynia

	1	X	2
	1.36	4.2	8	Watch
	1.32	5.25	8
	1.35	4.75	7.9	Watch
	1.36	5.03	8.45
	1.37	5.01	8.29	Watch
	1.33	4.75	8
	1.35	4.85	7.9	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.35 ↓ (1.64)	4.83 ↑ (3.85)	8.08 ↑ (5.48)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Raków Częstochowa
69.2%

Draw
19.3%

Arka Gdynia
11.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

58%

24.7%

17.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

60.4%

23.7%

16.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Raków Częstochowa has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+11.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Raków Częstochowa's performance.

Arka Gdynia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Arka Gdynia might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Raków Częstochowa than the current prediction. (-8.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Raków Częstochowa that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Arka Gdynia than the current prediction. (+5.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Arka Gdynia could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
91.4%	5.7%	2.9%

Raków Częstochowa - Arka Gdynia Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Raków (votes: 2 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -1 - Raków (1.43) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2 - over (1.23) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Raków Częstochowa will win (32 of 35 users predict this - 91.43%).
Confidence interval (95%): 82.16% – 100%.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Raków (votes: 3 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Trelowski K. (G) 7. Tudor F. (C) 25. Racovitan B. 2. Mosor A. 20. Silva J. C. 6. Repka O. 5. Bulat M. 11. Adriano 9. Makuch P. 18. Brunes J. 8. Pienko T.	1. Grobelny J. (G) 3. Szota S. 29. Marcjanik M. 94. Gojny D. (C) 4. Zator D. 8. Sidibe A. 22. Rzuchowski M. 33. Abramowicz D. 19. Gutkovskis V. 21. Szysz P. 11. Kocyla D.
Substitutes
22. Abraham O. 19. Ameyaw M. 27. Dawidowicz P. 35. Ilenic M. 30. Kochergin V. 10. Lopez I. 44. Mircetic B. 17. Rocha L. 4. Svarnas S. 29. Zolneczko W. (G) 48. Zych O. (G)	99. Espiau Hernandez E. D. 41. Gohlike O. 42. Gozdecki N. 30. Krzepisz K. (G) 2. Navarro M. 43. Zacharewicz W.
Coaches
Kroczek D.	Banasik D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
14', Gojny D. 🟨,
32', Sidibe A. 🟨,
37', 1 - 0, Bulat M. ⚽, Adriano (A),
2nd Half (2 - 0)
46', Racovitan B. ↓, Dawidowicz P. ↑,
60', Adriano 🟨,
60', Pienko T. ↓, Lopez I. ↑,
63', Kocyla D. ↓, Gozdecki N. ↑,
63', Gutkovskis V. ↓, Espiau Hernandez E. D. ↑,
68', Adriano ↓, Ameyaw M. ↑,
71', 2 - 0, Brunes J. ⚽, Silva J. C. (A),
72', Szysz P. ↓, Navarro M. ↑,
75', 3 - 0, Silva J. C. ⚽, Bulat M. (A),
80', Silva J. C. ↓, Ilenic M. ↑,
80', Makuch P. ↓, Rocha L. ↑,
90+1', Sidibe A. ↓, Gohlike O. ↑,
90+2', Zator D. ↓, Zacharewicz W. ↑,

Preview

A leader and an outsider will face off in this match (ranked 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: ) and 17 in the zone Relegation ~ Division 1).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Raków won 4.

Raków has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Arka is currently in poor form (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

In this match, Raków is the undeniable favorite.

In the last 6 head-to-head matches, Raków won 5 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 15:7. (average 2.5:1.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Raków won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 7:3. (average 2.3:1).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
18	Rakow	10	1	0	9	13:25	-12	3

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Raków Częstochowa
Polish Ekstraklasa
17.05.26	Piast Gliwice - Raków Częstochowa	1:3 ✺
13.05.26	Raków Częstochowa - Jagiellonia Białystok	0:2 ✺
08.05.26	Raków Częstochowa - Korona Kielce	2:0 ✺
Polish Cup
02.05.26	Górnik Zabrze - Raków Częstochowa	2:0 ✺
Polish Ekstraklasa
25.04.26	Lechia Gdańsk - Raków Częstochowa	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.2 WLWLW
- Arka Gdynia
Polish Ekstraklasa
18.05.26	Arka Gdynia - Termalica Nieciecza	2:3 ✺
13.05.26	Arka Gdynia - Górnik Zabrze	0:0 ✺
08.05.26	Lech Poznań - Arka Gdynia	1:1 ✺
27.04.26	Piast Gliwice - Arka Gdynia	4:1 ✺
19.04.26	Arka Gdynia - Jagiellonia Białystok	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.3 LTTLL

Latest Head to Head

Polish Ekstraklasa
30.11.25	Arka Gdynia - Raków Częstochowa	1:4
Polish Cup
01.03.22	Arka Gdynia - Raków Częstochowa	0:2
02.05.21	Raków Częstochowa - Arka Gdynia	2:1
Polish Ekstraklasa
26.06.20	Raków Częstochowa - Arka Gdynia	3:2
22.02.20	Arka Gdynia - Raków Częstochowa	3:2
14.09.19	Raków Częstochowa - Arka Gdynia	2:0

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