Match Info

Division 1 - Norra - Round 7

Date: 13 May 2026, Wednesday

Location: Midgardsvallen (Märsta)

Where to Watch on TV:


Sweden	Ettan Play


	Arlanda		Karlberg

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.1	3.5	3	Watch
	2.15	3.66	3.01
	2.15	3.72	2.99	Watch
	2.1	3.25	2.9
	2.1	3.46	2.99	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.12 ↑ (2.06)	3.52 ↓ (3.63)	2.98 ↓ (3.02)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 6.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Arlanda
43.2%

Draw
26%

Karlberg
30.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

44.5%

25.2%

30.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

46.3%

24.2%

29.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Arlanda has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.3%)

Karlberg has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Arlanda than the current prediction. (+3.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Karlberg than the current prediction. (-1.7%)

Arlanda - Karlberg Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Smedberg Lagh A. (G) 16. Bergstedt O. 18. Carlsson J. 14. Hansen A. 27. Johansson E. 21. Kleist L. 2. Norberg C. 7. Rehman S. 19. Rydz S. 9. Strangborn F. 8. Yemane Y. (C)	1. Gkoulios A. (G) 17. Aslund H. 7. Fernandez H. 5. Geiger N. 19. Jemal A. 11. Mitku M. 8. Negash N. 2. Nieminen Eriksson F. 18. Rupia-Ellis A. (C) 3. Steen V. 13. Sundgren R.
Substitutes
4. Aslan M. 10. Charbachi A. 24. Dibaga D. 3. Kahsay I. 30. Karo A. (G) 25. Koroma R. 12. Ngoga D.	35. Bojang E. (G) 14. Fati A. 15. Hall V. 25. Hogberg F. 9. Jamshidi A. 24. Sietsema L. 16. Vainio N.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
19', 0 - 1, Fernandez H. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Strangborn F. ↓, Charbachi A. ↑,
58', Mitku M. ↓, Sietsema L. ↑,
61', 1 - 1, Johansson E. ⚽,
71', Fernandez H. 🟨,
79', Geiger N. 🟨,
80', Johansson E. 🟨,
81', Negash N. ↓, Hall V. ↑,
87', Nieminen Eriksson F. ↓, Jamshidi A. ↑,
87', Fernandez H. ↓, Fati A. ↑,
87', Yemane Y. ↓, Dibaga D. ↑,

Preview

Get ready for a battle between the top and the middle of the table (ranked 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Division 1 ~ Norra (Relegation: ) and 7).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Arlanda won 1.

Arlanda is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Karlberg has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Arlanda will hold a modest advantage in this match.

In the last 6 head-to-head matches, Arlanda won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 5:15. (average 0.8:2.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Arlanda won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 2:5. (average 0.7:1.7).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
2	Arlanda	25	14	6	5	46:28	18	48
10	Karlbergs	25	9	5	11	33:41	-8	32

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Arlanda
Swedish Division 1 Norra
09.05.26	Arlanda - Sollentuna	1:1 ✺
03.05.26	Piteå - Arlanda	1:2 ✺
24.04.26	Enköping - Arlanda	1:7 ✺
18.04.26	Arlanda - Stockholm Internazionale	0:0 ✺
12.04.26	Umeå - Arlanda	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 21.6 TWWTW
- Karlbergs BK
Swedish Division 1 Norra
09.05.26	Karlberg - Karlstad	0:0 ✺
03.05.26	Umeå - Karlberg	2:1 ✺
26.04.26	Karlberg - Gefle	3:2 ✺
19.04.26	Assyriska Föreningen - Karlberg	3:4 ✺
10.04.26	Karlberg - Enköping	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.9 TLWWL

Latest Head to Head

Swedish Division 1 Norra
09.08.25	Karlberg - Arlanda	1:3
19.06.25	Arlanda - Karlberg	0:1
Swedish Division 2 - Norra Svealand
10.09.23	Karlberg - Arlanda	2:0
13.05.23	Arlanda - Karlberg	1:2
08.08.21	Arlanda - Karlberg	1:2
31.07.21	Karlberg - Arlanda	7:0

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