Match Info

Division 1 - Norra - Round 6

Date: 9 May 2026, Saturday

Location: Stadshagens IP (Vasastaden)

Where to Watch on TV:


Sweden	Ettan Play


	Karlberg		Karlstad

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.8	3.5	2.1
	2.48	3.6	2.42	Watch
	2.39	3.92	2.59
	2.67	3.93	2.27	Watch
	2.4	3.3	2.4
	2.39	3.64	2.4	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.52 ↓ (2.83)	3.65 ↑ (3.55)	2.36 ↑ (2.18)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Karlberg
36.3%

Draw
25.1%

Karlstad
38.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

32.3%

25.8%

41.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

31.1%

24.9%

43.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Karlberg has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4%)

Karlstad has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Karlberg than the current prediction. (-5.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Karlberg that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Karlstad than the current prediction. (+4.8%)

Karlberg - Karlstad Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Gkoulios A. (G) 17. Aslund H. 7. Fernandez H. 5. Geiger N. 19. Jemal A. 11. Mitku M. 8. Negash N. 2. Nieminen Eriksson F. 18. Rupia-Ellis A. (C) 3. Steen V. 13. Sundgren R.	13. Henareh D. (G) 2. Beko S. 7. Bellman H. 11. Bengtsson J. 14. Hook I. 22. Kack Ofordu K. 16. Modou F. 24. Nfansu D. 19. Nilsson King E. (C) 18. Tagoe B. 6. Zurmati S.
Substitutes
35. Bojang E. (G) 14. Fati A. 15. Hall V. 25. Hogberg F. 9. Jamshidi A. 24. Sietsema L. 16. Vainio N.	26. Alfonsi D. 25. Brostrom I. 28. Djerlek A. 8. Gibbs C. 17. Jatta N. 1. Karlsson M. (G) 12. Miguel W.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (0 - 0)
57', Modou F. ↓, Miguel W. ↑,
67', Kack Ofordu K. ↓, Alfonsi D. ↑,
76', Geiger N. ↓, Sietsema L. ↑,
76', Nieminen Eriksson F. ↓, Fati A. ↑,
82', Mitku M. ↓, Hall V. ↑,
83', Negash N. ↓, Vainio N. ↑,
88', Zurmati S. ↓, Djerlek A. ↑,
88', Nilsson King E. ↓, Jatta N. ↑,

Preview

The most interesting match of the day — two teams from the very top of the table will face off (ranked 6 and 3).

Recent performances by Karlberg have been up and down (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Karlstad is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Karlberg won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 5:10. (average 1.3:2.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Karlberg won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 4:7. (average 2:3.5).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
7	Karlstad	25	11	8	6	37:25	12	41
10	Karlbergs	25	9	5	11	33:41	-8	32

Last Results with these Odds

Karlberg - the odds 2.83 are the expected chance of winning is 32.31%, but this team recently wins 50% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Karlbergs BK
Swedish Division 1 Norra
03.05.26	Umeå - Karlberg	2:1 ✺
26.04.26	Karlberg - Gefle	3:2 ✺
19.04.26	Assyriska Föreningen - Karlberg	3:4 ✺
10.04.26	Karlberg - Enköping	1:3 ✺
04.04.26	Sollentuna - Karlberg	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.7 LWWLW
- IF Karlstad
Swedish Division 1 Norra
02.05.26	Karlstad - Hammarby TFF	0:2 ✺
26.04.26	AFC Eskilstuna - Karlstad	0:2 ✺
18.04.26	Karlstad - Järfälla	2:1 ✺
12.04.26	Stockholm Internazionale - Karlstad	0:1 ✺
06.04.26	Karlstad - Piteå	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.1 LWWWW

Latest Head to Head

Swedish Division 1 Norra
13.09.25	Karlstad - Karlberg	1:0
04.05.25	Karlberg - Karlstad	2:3
09.11.24	Karlberg - Karlstad	2:4
08.05.24	Karlstad - Karlberg	2:1

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