Match Info

Division 1 - Norra - Round 14

Date: 27 June 2026, Saturday

Location: Midgardsvallen (Märsta)

Where to Watch on TV:


Sweden	Ettan Play


	Arlanda		Karlstad

	1	X	2
				Watch
	3.20	3.50	1.90
	3.35	3.50	1.90	Watch
	3.05	3.40	1.90
	3.25	3.9	1.98	Watch
	3.10	3.40	1.96
	3.36	3.89	1.94	Watch
	2.55	3.25	2.28
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.12 ↑ (2.64)	3.55 ↑ (3.35)	1.98 ↓ (2.32)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 6.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Arlanda
28.9%

Draw
25.5%

Karlstad
45.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

34.2%

26.9%

38.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

34.8%

27.4%

38.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Arlanda has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Arlanda's form might have worsened.

Karlstad has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Karlstad's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Arlanda than the current prediction. (+5.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Arlanda, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Karlstad than the current prediction. (-7.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Karlstad, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Arlanda - Karlstad Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Smedberg Lagh A. (G) 15. Antholm I. 22. Butros M. 18. Carlsson J. 5. Elfstrom V. 27. Johansson E. 21. Kleist L. 2. Norberg C. 7. Rehman S. 19. Rydz S. 8. Yemane Y. (C)	1. Karlsson M. (G) 2. Beko S. 7. Bellman H. 28. Djerlek A. 21. Gustafsson K. 14. Hook I. 22. Kack Ofordu K. 24. Nfansu D. 19. Nilsson King E. (C) 18. Tagoe B. 6. Zurmati S.
Substitutes
4. Ahmed M. 3. Aslan M. 16. Bergstedt O. 12. Dedic A. 24. Dibaga D. 30. Karo A. (G) 25. Koroma R.	10. Alvers O. 11. Bengtsson J. 9. Carstrom J. 13. Henareh D. (G) 17. Jatta N. 12. Miguel W. 16. Modou F.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
21', Nilsson King E. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
59', 1 - 0, Rydz S. ⚽,
60', 🟨,
61', Kack Ofordu K. ↓, Alvers O. ↑,
61', Djerlek A. ↓, Miguel W. ↑,
73', Carlsson J. 🟨,
79', Norberg C. 🟨,
81', Carlsson J. ↓, Bergstedt O. ↑,
90+1', Rydz S. ↓, Ahmed M. ↑,
90+1', Butros M. ↓, Koroma R. ↑,
90+5', 🟨,
90+6', 🟨,

Preview

The most interesting match of the day — two teams from the very top of the table will face off (ranked 3 and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Division 1 ~ Norra (Relegation: )).

Currently, both teams are in excellent shape.

Karlstad may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Karlstad might have a minor edge in this game.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Arlanda won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 3:8. (average 1.5:4).

Including home match between the teams, Arlanda won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 3:5.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
2	Arlanda	25	14	6	5	46:28	18	48
7	Karlstad	25	11	8	6	37:25	12	41

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Arlanda
Svenska Cupen
23.06.26	Järfälla - Arlanda	0:2 ✺
Swedish Division 1 Norra
18.06.26	Arlanda - Stocksund	1:0 ✺
13.06.26	Järfälla - Arlanda	2:3 ✺
07.06.26	Arlanda - Assyriska Föreningen	2:0 ✺
01.06.26	Arlanda - Gefle	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.4 WWWWL
- IF Karlstad
Swedish Division 1 Norra
21.06.26	Assyriska Föreningen - Karlstad	2:2 ✺
13.06.26	Karlstad - Gefle	2:0 ✺
Svenska Cupen
10.06.26	Eker Örebro - Karlstad	0:3 ✺
Swedish Division 1 Norra
05.06.26	FBK Karlstad - Karlstad	2:3 ✺
30.05.26	Karlstad - Sollentuna	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6 TWWWT

Latest Head to Head

Swedish Division 1 Norra
01.11.25	Arlanda - Karlstad	3:5
29.05.25	Karlstad - Arlanda	3:0

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