Match Info

NIFL Championship - Relegation Group - Round 36

Date: 12 April 2025, Saturday


	Armagh City		Newry City

	1	X	2
	2.1	3.6	2.65
	2.19	3.85	2.75
	2.21	3.91	2.8
	2.15	3.68	2.76
	2.19	3.85	2.75
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.17 ↑ (1.9)	3.78 ↓ (3.92)	2.74 ↓ (3.27)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 6.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Armagh City
42.3%

Draw
24.3%

Newry City
33.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

48.4%

23.5%

28.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

48.4%

23.5%

28.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Armagh City has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Armagh City's form might have worsened.

Newry City has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Newry City's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Armagh City than the current prediction. (+6.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Armagh City, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Newry City than the current prediction. (-5.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Newry City, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Armagh City - Newry City Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
16', 1 - 0, Rutkowski I. (Pen),
18', Poynton G. 🟥,
2nd Half (3 - 1)
67', 2 - 0, Doona J. ⚽,
67', 3 - 0, ⚽,
77', 4 - 0, Degelman O. ⚽,
80', 4 - 1, McNickle R. ⚽,

Preview

Armagh has a line of defeats in latest matches (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Recent matches Newry City is playing uncertain (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Armagh will have a mini benefit in this match.

Last 5 head-to-head matches Armagh won 1 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 8:8 (average 1.6:1.6).

Including matches at home between the teams Armagh won 1 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 6:6 (average 2:2).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Armagh City
Northern Irish Championship
05.04.25	Armagh City - Newington	3:3 ✺
01.04.25	Armagh City - Ballyclare Comrades	1:2 ✺
22.03.25	Ballinamallard United - Armagh City	2:0 ✺
14.03.25	Armagh City - Institute FC	1:2 ✺
08.03.25	Dundela - Armagh City	4:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.1 TLLLL
- Newry City
Northern Irish Championship
05.04.25	Newry City - Ballyclare Comrades	2:2 ✺
01.04.25	Newry City - Ballinamallard United	3:0 ✺
22.03.25	Limavady United - Newry City	3:1 ✺
14.03.25	Newry City - Dundela	1:1 ✺
08.03.25	Ballinamallard United - Newry City	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.3 TWLTT

Latest Head to Head

Northern Irish Championship
30.12.24	Newry City - Armagh City	1:1
08.11.24	Newry City - Armagh City	1:1
24.08.24	Armagh City - Newry City	3:3
Club Friendly
11.07.23	Armagh City - Newry City	2:0
Northern Irish Championship
05.05.17	Armagh City - Newry City	1:3

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