Match Info

Tercera RFEF - Group 1 - Round 14

Date: 14 December 2025, Sunday


	Arosa		Barco

	1	X	2
	1.55	3.4	5.5
	1.53	3.73	6.02
	1.00	12.98	25.00	Watch
	1.57	3.4	5.75
	1.63	3.64	5.46
	1.5	3.75	6
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.46 ↓ (1.6)	5.15 ↑ (3.55)	8.96 ↑ (5.2)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 7.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Arosa
69.1%

Draw
19.6%

Barco
11.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

56.9%

25.6%

17.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

58.3%

25%

17.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Arosa has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+12.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Arosa's performance.

Barco has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Barco might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Arosa than the current prediction. (-10.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Arosa that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Barco than the current prediction. (+5.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Barco could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Arosa - Barco Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
11', 1 - 0, Rivera J. ⚽,
18', 2 - 0, Gabri Palmas ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 0)

Preview

This match features one of the leaders against an outsider (ranked 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Tercera RFEF ~ Group 1 (Play Offs: ) and 15).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Arosa won 4.

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

In this match, Arosa is seen as the favorite.

In the last 6 head-to-head matches, Arosa won 4 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 11:7. (average 1.8:1.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Arosa won 3 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 10:7. (average 2:1.4).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Arosa SC
Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 1
07.12.25	Compostela - Arosa	1:0 ✺
23.11.25	Arosa - Estradense	2:0 ✺
16.11.25	Somozas - Arosa	0:0 ✺
09.11.25	Arosa - Montañeros	1:1 ✺
02.11.25	Viveiro - Arosa	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6 LWTTW
- CD Barco
Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 1
07.12.25	Barco - Atlético Arteixo	0:3 ✺
23.11.25	Noia - Barco	1:1 ✺
16.11.25	Barco - RC Villalbes	0:0 ✺
09.11.25	Barbadás - Barco	1:2 ✺
02.11.25	Barco - Alondras	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10 LTTWT

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 1
15.01.23	Arosa - Barco	2:1
11.09.22	Barco - Arosa	0:1
30.01.21	Arosa - Barco	2:2
15.12.19	Arosa - Barco	2:1
07.04.19	Arosa - Barco	2:1
Spanish Tercera Division - Play Offs
12.11.17	Arosa - Barco	2:2

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