Match Info

Tercera RFEF - Group 1 - Round 12

Date: 23 November 2025, Sunday


	Noia		Barco

	1	X	2
	2.08	3.1	3.25
	9.75	4.56	1.32	Watch
	2.59	3.02	2.53
	2.57	3.14	2.54
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.25 ↑ (2.12)	3.46 ↑ (3.1)	2.41 ↓ (3.27)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 7.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Noia
25.1%

Draw
30.8%

Barco
44.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

42.9%

29.3%

27.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.7%

29.8%

27.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Noia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-17.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Noia's form might have worsened.

Barco has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+16.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Barco's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Noia than the current prediction. (+18.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Noia, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Barco than the current prediction. (-16.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Barco, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Noia - Barco Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
2', 0 - 1, Castro B. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
63', 1 - 1, ⚽,

Preview

A mid-table team and an outsider will play in this match (ranked 16 in the zone Relegation and 13).

Noia has suffered several defeats recently (last 5 games: 0 wins).

In recent matches, Barco has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Noia could have a small edge in this match.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Noia won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 2:6. (average 1:3).

Including home match between the teams, Noia won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 1:2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CF Noia
Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 1
16.11.25	Compostela - Noia	2:1 ✺
09.11.25	Noia - Estradense	1:1 ✺
01.11.25	Somozas - Noia	1:0 ✺
25.10.25	Noia - Montañeros	1:3 ✺
19.10.25	Arosa - Noia	5:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.6 LTLLL
- CD Barco
Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 1
16.11.25	Barco - RC Villalbes	0:0 ✺
09.11.25	Barbadás - Barco	1:2 ✺
02.11.25	Barco - Alondras	1:1 ✺
26.10.25	Lugo B - Barco	1:1 ✺
19.10.25	Barco - Gran Peña	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11 TWTTL

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 1
06.02.22	Noia - Barco	1:2
Spanish Tercera Division - Play Offs
01.05.18	Barco - Noia	4:1

Noia - Barco: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide