Match Info

FNL 2 - Division B - Group 3 - Round 25

Date: 27 September 2026, Sunday


	Arsenal 2 Tula		Metallurg Lipetsk

	1	X	2
	5.38	4.2	1.46
Avarage Now (Initially)	5.38 ↑ (5)	4.2 ↓ (4.4)	1.46 ↓ (1.51)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 10.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Arsenal 2 Tula
16.8%

Draw
21.5%

Metallurg Lipetsk
61.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

18.4%

20.9%

60.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

17.9%

20.3%

62.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Arsenal 2 Tula has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.6%)

Metallurg Lipetsk has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Arsenal 2 Tula than the current prediction. (+1.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Metallurg Lipetsk than the current prediction. (+0.8%)

Arsenal 2 Tula - Metallurg Lipetsk Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (0 - 0)

Preview

A lower-table team faces a stern test hosting a top-ranking contender (ranked 15th in the Relegation and 6th).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Arsenal 2 Tula won 1.

Arsenal 2 Tula is going through a lean spell lately (last 5 matches: 0 wins).

Metallurg Lipetsk has shown an inconsistent pattern in recent weeks (last 5 matches: 3 wins).

Arsenal 2 Tula may face physical fatigue compared to their opponent, having played more matches in recent days.

Bookmakers give the edge to Metallurg Lipetsk for this game.

In the last 11 head-to-head meetings, Arsenal 2 Tula has recorded 1 win, 2 draws, and 8 losses, with a goal aggregate of 10:22 (averaging 0.9:2 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Arsenal 2 Tula against this opponent, the record stands at 1 win, 1 draw, and 3 losses, with 5:11 goals (averaging 1:2.2 per game).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
6	Lipetsk	26	14	6	6	47:28	19	48
14	Arsenal Tula 2	26	2	10	14	20:47	-27	16

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Arsenal 2 Tula
Russian FNL 2 Division B Group 3
19.09.26	Zenit Penza - Arsenal 2 Tula	0:0 ✺
13.09.26	Arsenal 2 Tula - Saturn Ramenskoye	1:2 ✺
06.09.26	Arsenal 2 Tula - Strogino Moskva	1:2 ✺
29.08.26	SKA Khabarovsk 2 - Arsenal 2 Tula	0:0 ✺
23.08.26	Arsenal 2 Tula - Shumbrat Saransk	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.4 TLLTT
- FC Metallurg Lipetsk
Russian FNL 2 Division B Group 3
19.09.26	Metallurg Lipetsk - Strogino Moskva	1:0 ✺
12.09.26	SKA Khabarovsk 2 - Metallurg Lipetsk	1:3 ✺
05.09.26	Metallurg Lipetsk - Shumbrat Saransk	0:1 ✺
29.08.26	Spartak Tambov - Metallurg Lipetsk	3:1 ✺
22.08.26	Metallurg Lipetsk - Avangard Kursk	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.5 WWLLW

Latest Head to Head

Russian FNL 2 Division B Group 3
06.06.26	Metallurg Lipetsk - Arsenal 2 Tula	3:1
24.08.25	Metallurg Lipetsk - Arsenal 2 Tula	1:0
04.05.25	Arsenal 2 Tula - Metallurg Lipetsk	1:2
Russian FNL 2 Group 3
15.10.22	Metallurg Lipetsk - Arsenal 2 Tula	1:0
15.08.22	Arsenal 2 Tula - Metallurg Lipetsk	2:1
Russian PFL Center
21.05.17	Metallurg Lipetsk - Arsenal 2 Tula	2:2
02.09.16	Arsenal 2 Tula - Metallurg Lipetsk	1:3

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