Match Info

ARGENTINA: Primera Nacional - Round 32

Date: 15 September 2024, Sunday

Location: Estadio Julio Humberto Grondona (Avellaneda)

Referee: Barraza J. (Arg)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	TyC Sports Play


	Arsenal Sarandí		Guillermo Brown

	1	X	2
	2.1	3	4	Watch
	2.05	2.85	3.75
	2.05	2.9	4
	2.12	2.84	4.52
	2.06	2.83	4.42	Watch
	1.95	3	4.2
	1.92	3.05	4.37
	2.05	2.9	4
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.04 ↑ (2.03)	2.92 ↓ (2.95)	4.16 ↑ (3.88)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.75

The best margin for this event is 4.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Arsenal Sarandí
45.7%

Draw
31.9%

Guillermo Brown
22.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

45.2%

31.2%

23.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

40.1%

27.7%

26.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Arsenal Sarandí has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.5%)

Guillermo Brown has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Arsenal Sarandí than the current prediction. (-5.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Arsenal Sarandí that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Guillermo Brown than the current prediction. (+4.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
66.7%	33.3%	0%

Arsenal Sarandí - Guillermo Brown Predictions

Users Predictions: 6 users predict this event. Arsenal Sarandí will win (votes: 4 - 66.7%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 33.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Masuero F. (G) 4. Sosa A. 2. Bernardi B. 6. Alvarez A. 3. Cabrera I. 5. Domingo N. (C) 8. Lucero M. 7. Sabatini I. 10. Ayala A. 11. Serrano V. 9. Rios L.	1. Giovini S. (G) 4. Werro V. 2. Bazzana N. (C) 6. Martinez E. 3. Pinto M. 5. Marin F. 8. Perez R. 7. Alvarez B. 10. Luayza M. 11. Gorgerino C. 9. Galeano M.
Substitutes
14. Frascone N. 20. Guzman L. 18. Krilanovich J. 15. Lopez S. 13. Maziero A. 17. Ortiz T. 19. Pavia K. 16. Trombini M. 12. Zozaya J. (G)	15. Chiavetto A. 14. Gonzales E. 19. Gutierrez S. 13. Herranz N. 18. Jara A. 16. Riquelme R. D. 20. Sandoval H. 17. Silva A. 12. Soria M. (G)
Coaches
Bianco J.	Sialle A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
20', 1 - 0, Rios L. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Perez R. ↓, Sandoval H. ↑,
61', Gorgerino C. ↓, Silva A. ↑,
65', 2 - 0, Rios L. ⚽,
66', Ayala A. ↓, Trombini M. ↑,
66', Rios L. ↓, Maziero A. ↑,
66', Alvarez B. ↓, Gutierrez S. ↑,
72', Lucero M. ↓, Frascone N. ↑,
78', Silva A. 🟨,
84', Luayza M. ↓, Jara A. ↑,
84', Serrano V. ↓, Krilanovich J. ↑,
87', Marin F. 🟨,

Preview

We will watch a tense game between outsiders (ranked 19 in the zone Relegation ~ Primera B (Apertura: ) and 18 in the zone Primera Nacional (Relegation ~ Play Offs: )).

Recent matches Arsenal Sarandí is playing shaky (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Guillermo Brown is in unsatisfactory shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Arsenal Sarandí could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match Arsenal Sarandí is a favorite.

Last 2 head-to-head matches Arsenal Sarandí won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 2-2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Arsenal Sarandí
Argentinian Primera Nacional
07.09.24	San Martín de San Juan - Arsenal Sarandí	0:0 ✺
02.09.24	San Telmo - Arsenal Sarandí	4:0 ✺
24.08.24	Arsenal Sarandí - San Martín de Tucumán	1:1 ✺
18.08.24	Chacarita Juniors - Arsenal Sarandí	0:0 ✺
10.08.24	Arsenal Sarandí - Estudiantes de Caseros	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.4 TLTTT
- Guillermo Brown
Argentinian Primera Nacional
08.09.24	Guillermo Brown - San Martín de Tucumán	0:1 ✺
01.09.24	Chacarita Juniors - Guillermo Brown	1:0 ✺
25.08.24	Guillermo Brown - Estudiantes de Caseros	3:1 ✺
19.08.24	Talleres de Remedios de Escalada - Guillermo Brown	1:1 ✺
11.08.24	Guillermo Brown - Quilmes	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.6 LLWTL

Latest Head to Head

Argentinian Primera Nacional
28.04.24	Guillermo Brown - Arsenal Sarandí	2:0
03.02.19	Guillermo Brown - Arsenal Sarandí	0:2

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