Match Info

Primera Nacional - Round 12

Date: 26 April 2025, Saturday

Location: Estadio Julio Humberto Grondona (Avellaneda)

Referee: Loustau J. P. (Arg)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	DirecTV Sports, TyC Sports Play
South-america	DGO Latin America
Uruguay	DSports 1
Venezuela	DSports 1


	Arsenal Sarandí		San Martín de Tucumán

	1	X	2
	3.25	3	2.35	Watch
	3.4	2.8	2.25
	3.45	2.9	2.27	Watch
	3.79	2.79	2.49
	3.62	2.71	2.38	Watch
	3.5	2.8	2.25
	3.42	2.8	2.31	Watch
	3.45	2.9	2.27
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.49 ↑ (3.05)	2.84 ↓ (2.95)	2.32 ↓ (2.5)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.75

The best margin for this event is 2.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Arsenal Sarandí
26.8%

Draw
32.9%

San Martín de Tucumán
40.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

30.7%

31.8%

37.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

29.9%

31%

38.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Arsenal Sarandí has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.9%)

San Martín de Tucumán has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Arsenal Sarandí than the current prediction. (+3.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for San Martín de Tucumán than the current prediction. (-1.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
25%	12.5%	62.5%

Arsenal Sarandí - San Martín de Tucumán Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Arsenal Sarandí will win (votes: 2 - 25%). San Martin T will win (votes: 5 - 62.5%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 12.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for San Martin T: 29% – 96%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. San Martin T (votes: 2 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -0.5 - San Martin T (2.44) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. San Martin T (votes: 3 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Pourtau J. (G) 4. Vera M. 2. Roselli N. 6. Caceres R. 3. Cabrera I. 7. Rius C. 5. Vila J. 10. Fernandez E. 11. Serrano V. 8. Trombini M. 9. Klusener G.	1. Sand D. (G) 4. Murillo F. 2. Rodriguez G. 6. Osores M. 3. Zuliani H. 5. Abregu G. 8. Garcia M. 10. Hachen G. 7. Garcia F. 11. Esquivel J. 9. Veron M.
Substitutes
16. Abbruzzese M. 14. Bernardi B. 19. Bordagaray F. 15. Colletta T. 20. Druille L. 17. Flores M. 12. Mekbel F. (G) 13. Purita E. 18. Stringa A.	17. Cainelli N. 12. Carrizo N. (G) 13. Orellana J. 18. Paz A. 20. Pino M. 19. Prokop A. 14. Quiroz F. 15. Soraire J. 16. Vera U.
Coaches
Franco D.	Martos A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
23', Fernandez E. 🟨,
35', 0 - 1, Esquivel J. ⚽,
45+1', Vila J. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Fernandez E. ↓, Druille L. ↑,
54', Cabrera I. 🟨,
61', Veron M. 🟨,
61', Veron M. ↓, Pino M. ↑,
61', Murillo F. 🟨,
69', Serrano V. ↓, Flores M. ↑,
69', Vila J. ↓, Colletta T. ↑,
70', Esquivel J. ↓, Paz A. ↑,
70', Hachen G. ↓, Prokop A. ↑,
80', Murillo F. ↓, Vera U. ↑,
80', Klusener G. ↓, Bordagaray F. ↑,
80', Rius C. ↓, Stringa A. ↑,
80', Garcia F. ↓, Cainelli N. ↑,
89', Vera U. 🟨,

Preview

Arsenal Sarandí is in awful shape (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

San Martin T is in super good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

San Martin T will have a small advantage in this match.

Last 2 head-to-head matches Arsenal Sarandí won 0 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 1:3 (average 0.5:1.5).

Including matches at home between the teams Arsenal Sarandí won 0 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 1:1

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Arsenal Sarandí
Argentinian Primera Nacional
19.04.25	Güemes - Arsenal Sarandí	1:0 ✺
14.04.25	Arsenal Sarandí - Patronato Parana	0:1 ✺
07.04.25	Ferro Carril Oeste - Arsenal Sarandí	2:0 ✺
30.03.25	Arsenal Sarandí - Club Almagro	2:2 ✺
22.03.25	San Miguel - Arsenal Sarandí	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.5 LLLTT
- San Martín de Tucumán
Argentinian Primera Nacional
19.04.25	San Martín de Tucumán - All Boys	1:1 ✺
12.04.25	Alvarado - San Martín de Tucumán	0:2 ✺
06.04.25	San Martín de Tucumán - Deportivo Madryn	0:0 ✺
30.03.25	Deportivo Maipú - San Martín de Tucumán	0:1 ✺
23.03.25	San Martín de Tucumán - Gimnasia y Tiro	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.9 TWTWW

Latest Head to Head

Argentinian Primera Nacional
24.08.24	Arsenal Sarandí - San Martín de Tucumán	1:1
06.04.24	San Martín de Tucumán - Arsenal Sarandí	2:0

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