Match Info

ARGENTINA: Primera Nacional - Round 30

Date: 2 September 2024, Monday

Location: Estadio Osvaldo Baletto (Dock Sud)

Referee: Ferreyra B. (Arg)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	TyC Sports Play


	San Telmo		Arsenal Sarandí

	1	X	2
	2.2	2.88	3.75	Watch
	2.15	2.85	3.6
	2.2	2.9	3.6
	2.27	2.81	3.96
	2.2	2.84	3.88	Watch
	2.15	2.9	3.6
	2.13	2.97	3.67
	2.2	2.9	3.6
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.19 ↑ (1.77)	2.88 ↓ (3.14)	3.71 ↓ (5.02)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.75

The best margin for this event is 4.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

San Telmo
42.6%

Draw
32.3%

Arsenal Sarandí
25.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

52.2%

29.4%

18.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.9%

24.7%

21.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

San Telmo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that San Telmo's form might have worsened.

Arsenal Sarandí has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Arsenal Sarandí's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for San Telmo than the current prediction. (+1.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Arsenal Sarandí than the current prediction. (-3.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
29.4%	52.9%	17.6%

San Telmo - Arsenal Sarandí Predictions

Users Predictions: 17 users predict this event. San Telmo will win (votes: 5 - 29.4%). Arsenal Sarandí will win (votes: 3 - 17.6%). It will Tie (votes: 9 - 52.9%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 29.2% – 76.6%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Bustos B. (G) 4. Vallejos M. 2. Gonzalez H. 6. Lamosa A. 3. Ayala R. 8. Franco E. 5. Ramirez G. (C) 7. Larthirigoyen I. 11. Cosi J. 9. Diellos D. 10. Gonzalez R.	1. Masuero F. (G) 4. Amaya A. 2. Sosa A. 6. Alvarez A. 3. Cabrera I. 8. Lucero M. 5. Domingo N. (C) 10. Trombini M. 11. Serrano V. 7. Sabatini I. 9. Maziero A.
Substitutes
12. Balderrama M. A. (G) 19. Barreto J. 15. Gimenez G. 13. Lillo G. 18. Mayenfisch G. 16. Medina C. 14. Pollacchi L. 17. Salerno M. 20. Tisera F.	19. Ayala A. 13. Bernardi B. 16. Brestt F. 17. Frascone N. 20. Ledesma J. 14. Lopez S. 18. Ortiz T. 15. Rios L. 12. Zozaya J. (G)
Coaches
Grelak A.	Bianco J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
2', 1 - 0, Larthirigoyen I. ⚽,
20', 2 - 0, Cosi J. ⚽,
28', Lamosa A. 🟨,
30', Cosi J. 🟨,
45+1', Cosi J. ↓, Barreto J. ↑,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
46', Lucero M. ↓, Ledesma J. ↑,
49', Cabrera I. 🟨,
58', 3 - 0, Diellos D. ⚽,
59', Ayala R. 🟨,
60', Amaya A. 🟨,
60', Larthirigoyen I. ↓, Lillo G. ↑,
60', Gonzalez R. ↓, Medina C. ↑,
63', Serrano V. ↓, Rios L. ↑,
64', Trombini M. ↓, Ortiz T. ↑,
68', 4 - 0, Diellos D. ⚽,
70', Diellos D. ↓, Tisera F. ↑,
70', Franco E. ↓, Mayenfisch G. ↑,
89', Sosa A. 🟨,

Preview

One of the leader and one of the outsider will meet in this game (ranked 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Primera Nacional (Promotion ~ Play Offs: ) and 18 in the zone Primera Nacional (Relegation ~ Play Offs: )).

San Telmo is in bad shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Recent matches Arsenal Sarandí is playing unpredictable (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

In this match San Telmo is a favorite.

Last 1 head-to-head matches San Telmo won 0 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 0-0.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CA San Telmo
Argentinian Primera Nacional
25.08.24	Chaco For Ever - San Telmo	1:0 ✺
18.08.24	San Telmo - Defensores de Belgrano	1:2 ✺
11.08.24	Club Almagro - San Telmo	1:1 ✺
04.08.24	San Telmo - Brown de Adrogué	3:0 ✺
31.07.24	San Telmo - Aldosivi	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.8 LLTWL
- Arsenal Sarandí
Argentinian Primera Nacional
24.08.24	Arsenal Sarandí - San Martín de Tucumán	1:1 ✺
18.08.24	Chacarita Juniors - Arsenal Sarandí	0:0 ✺
10.08.24	Arsenal Sarandí - Estudiantes de Caseros	1:1 ✺
03.08.24	Talleres de Remedios de Escalada - Arsenal Sarandí	0:0 ✺
27.07.24	Arsenal Sarandí - Quilmes	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.5 TTTTT

Latest Head to Head

Argentinian Primera Nacional
14.04.24	Arsenal Sarandí - San Telmo	0:0

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