Match Info

UGANDA: PREMIER LEAGUE - ROUND 14

Date: 3 January 2024, Wednesday


	Arua Hill		Express

	1	X	2
	9	4	1.33
	11.2	6.2	1.19
Avarage Now (Initially)	10.1 ↑ (5.64)	5.1 ↑ (3)	1.26 ↓ (1.69)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 9.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Arua Hill
9.1%

Draw
18%

Express
72.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

16.1%

30.2%

53.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

15.8%

29.6%

54.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Arua Hill has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Arua Hill's form might have worsened.

Express has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+19.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Express's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Arua Hill than the current prediction. (+6.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Arua Hill, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Express than the current prediction. (-18.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Express, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

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Preview

The game between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 16 in the zone Relegation and 8).

Arua Hill has a chain of defeats in the last matches (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Recent matches Express is playing unpredictable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

In this match Express is the unquestionable favorite.

Last 3 head-to-head matches Arua Hill won 3 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 4-0.

Including matches at home between the teams Arua Hill won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 1-0.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Arua Hill SC
Ugandan Super League
28.12.23	Kitara - Arua Hill	7:1 ✺
20.12.23	Arua Hill - Maroons	1:3 ✺
10.12.23	Uganda Revenue Authority SC - Arua Hill	4:1 ✺
05.12.23	Arua Hill - Wakiso Giants	2:2 ✺
30.11.23	Bright Stars - Arua Hill	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.2 LLLTL
- Express FC
Ugandan Super League
30.12.23	Express - Vipers	2:0 ✺
21.12.23	NEC FC - Express	2:5 ✺
12.12.23	Kitara - Express	1:0 ✺
08.12.23	Express - Villa	1:2 ✺
05.12.23	Express - Bul	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.4 WWLLT

Latest Head to Head

Ugandan Super League
02.12.22	Express - Arua Hill	0:1
21.05.22	Arua Hill - Express	1:0
15.10.21	Express - Arua Hill	0:2

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