Match Info

First League - Round 14

Date: 16 July 2026, Thursday


	Arys		Turan Turkistan

	1	X	2
	9.25	5.25	1.24
	7.9	4.65	1.3
	6.6	4.8	1.26
	10.03	5.69	1.22	Watch
	7.65	4.5	1.3
	5	4	1.4
Avarage Now (Initially)	7.74 ↑ (5)	4.82 ↑ (4)	1.29 ↓ (1.4)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 9.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Arys
11.6%

Draw
18.6%

Turan Turkistan
69.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

17.2%

21.5%

61.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

16.7%

20.9%

63.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Arys has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Arys's form might have worsened.

Turan Turkistan has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Turan Turkistan's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Arys than the current prediction. (+5.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Arys, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Turan Turkistan than the current prediction. (-6.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Turan Turkistan, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 2)
2', 0 - 1, Kenesov A. ⚽, Saidov E. (A),
34', 0 - 2, Kenesov A. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 2)
70', 0 - 3, Duysenbekuly K. ⚽, Kenesov A. (A),
90+4', 0 - 4, Erken A. ⚽, Gerasimov M. (A),

Preview

This match will feature an outsider and one of the leaders (ranked 12 and 3).

Arys has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Turan is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Arys won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 1:7. (average 0.3:2.3).

Including home match between the teams, Arys won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:4.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	Turan	23	16	2	5	51:21	30	50
11	Arys	23	7	3	13	29:43	-14	24

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Arys
Kazakh First League
09.07.26	Akademiya Ontustik - Arys	1:2 ✺
03.07.26	Arys - Yelimay 2	3:2 ✺
25.06.26	Aktobe 2 - Arys	3:1 ✺
12.06.26	Batyr Ekibastuz - Arys	1:1 ✺
26.05.26	Arys - Kairat 2	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 23.9 WWLTL
- FC Turan Turkistan
Kazakh First League
10.07.26	Shakhter Karagandy - Turan Turkistan	1:0 ✺
03.07.26	Turan Turkistan - Jaiyq	2:2 ✺
25.06.26	Yelimay 2 - Turan Turkistan	0:3 ✺
12.06.26	Turan Turkistan - Kaspiy Aktau 2	3:0 ✺
27.05.26	Turan Turkistan - Batyr Ekibastuz	4:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4 LTWWW

Latest Head to Head

Kazakh First League
16.04.26	Turan Turkistan - Arys	1:0
27.09.23	Arys - Turan Turkistan	0:4
11.06.23	Turan Turkistan - Arys	2:1

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