Match Info

First League - Round 11

Date: 25 June 2026, Thursday


	Aktobe 2		Arys

	1	X	2
	1.72	4.00	3.50
	1.7	4.05	3.6
	1.69	3.85	3.35
	1.82	3.88	3.51	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.73 ↓ (1.82)	3.95 ↑ (3.88)	3.49 ↓ (3.51)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 9.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Aktobe 2
51.7%

Draw
22.7%

Arys
25.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

50.3%

23.6%

26.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

42.6%

20%

30.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Aktobe 2 has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.4%)

Arys has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Aktobe 2 than the current prediction. (-9.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Aktobe 2 that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Arys than the current prediction. (+5.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Arys could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
45+2', 0 - 1, Saduakas M. ⚽,
2nd Half (3 - 0)
51', 1 - 1, Begimov A. ⚽, Kenzhegulov A. (A),
66', 2 - 1, Kenzhegulov A. ⚽, Umaniyazov M. (A),
73', 3 - 1, Kenzhegulov A. ⚽, Umaniyazov M. (A),

Preview

We will watch a tense game between outsiders (ranked 11 and 13 in the zone Relegation).

Aktobe 2 is going through a rough patch (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Arys has suffered multiple defeats recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

In this match, Aktobe 2 is seen as the favorite.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Aktobe 2 won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 6:4. (average 2:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Aktobe 2 won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 5:2. (average 2.5:1).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
11	Arys	23	7	3	13	29:43	-14	24
12	Aktobe 2	23	6	5	12	38:69	-31	23

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Aktobe 2
Kazakh First League
11.06.26	Aktobe 2 - Akademiya Ontustik	1:4 ✺
27.05.26	Jaiyq - Aktobe 2	3:2 ✺
21.05.26	Aktobe 2 - Yelimay 2	3:1 ✺
15.05.26	Shakhter Karagandy - Aktobe 2	7:0 ✺
08.05.26	Batyr Ekibastuz - Aktobe 2	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.1 LLWLT
- FC Arys
Kazakh First League
12.06.26	Batyr Ekibastuz - Arys	1:1 ✺
26.05.26	Arys - Kairat 2	0:3 ✺
22.05.26	Taraz - Arys	2:1 ✺
15.05.26	Arys - Khan Tengri	0:1 ✺
07.05.26	Tobol 2 - Arys	4:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.9 TLLLL

Latest Head to Head

Kazakh First League
20.09.24	Aktobe 2 - Arys	0:1
07.10.23	Arys - Aktobe 2	2:1
30.06.23	Aktobe 2 - Arys	5:1

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