Match Info

Conference League - Qualification - Semi-finals

Date: 14 August 2025, Thursday

Location: Astana Arena (Astana)

Referee: Matosa M. (Slo)

Where to Watch on TV:


Kazakhstan	Qazsport
Switzerland	Play RTS, Play RTS, RTS 2, RTS 2, RTS Sport, RTS Sport, Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV
Ukraine	Sport 1, Sport 3
World	Sport 1 Baltic


	Astana		Lausanne-Sport

	1	X	2
	1.95	3.6	3.25	Watch
	2.1	3.6	2.95
	2.08	3.7	2.98	Watch
	2.02	3.87	3.13
	2.00	3.72	3.32	Watch
	2.21	3.78	3.09	Watch
	2.37	3.5	2.7
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.1 ↓ (2.33)	3.68 ↑ (3.5)	3.06 ↑ (2.6)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 4.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Astana
44.3%

Draw
25.3%

Lausanne-Sport
30.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

39%

26%

35%

Our Initial ML Estimation

39.6%

26.4%

34.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Astana has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Astana's performance.

Lausanne-Sport has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Astana than the current prediction. (-4.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lausanne-Sport than the current prediction. (+4.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
72.5%	19.6%	7.8%

Astana - Lausanne Sport Predictions

Users Predictions: 51 users predict this event. Astana will win (votes: 37 - 72.5%). Lausanne-Sport will win (votes: 4 - 7.8%). It will Tie (votes: 10 - 19.6%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Astana: 60.2% – 84.8%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 28 Selected Experts predict this event. Astana (votes: 19 - 67.9%). Lausanne-Sport (votes: 2 - 7.1%). Tie (votes: 7 - 25%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0 - Astana (1.52) (votes: 4 - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

DC - Astana (1.32) (votes: 5 - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

BTS - no (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 37 Selected Experts predict this event. Astana (votes: 28 - 75.7%). Lausanne-Sport (votes: 2 - 5.4%). Tie (votes: 7 - 18.9%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
74. Seysen M. (G) 2. Bartolec K. 5. Kazukolovas K. 3. Kalaica B. 6. Vorogovskiy Y. 10. Tomasov M. (C) 8. Basic I. 7. Ebong M. 28. Camara O. 9. Geoffrey C. 77. Gripshi N.	25. Letica K. (G) 14. Mouanga K. 6. Dussenne N. 5. Okoh B. 18. Poaty M. 2. Soppy B. 8. Roche J. 10. Custodio O. (C) 27. Lekoueiry B. 70. Diakite G. 9. Sene M. K.
Substitutes
45. Amanovic A. 71. Anuarov S. 72. Basmanov S. 15. Beysebekov A. 4. Bystrov M. 11. Camaj D. 93. Condric J. (G) 81. Karimov R. 99. Karpikov D. (G) 22. Marochkin A. 18. Shomko D. 14. Zhaksylykov N.	20. Abdallah H. 7. Ajdini A. 77. Al Saad M. 11. Butler-Oyedeji N. 21. Carraco D. 1. Castella T. (G) 93. Fofana S. 94. Hottiger T. (G) 54. Lippo R. 47. N'Diaye S. 71. Sow K. 17. Traore S.
Coaches
Babayan G.	Zeidler P.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
15', Basic I. 🟨,
41', Vorogovskiy Y. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 2)
48', 0 - 1, Lekoueiry B. ⚽,
51', Ebong M. 🟨,
66', 0 - 2, Diakite G. ⚽,
69', Sene M. K. ↓, Butler-Oyedeji N. ↑,
69', Lekoueiry B. ↓, N'Diaye S. ↑,
72', Camara O. ↓, Camaj D. ↑,
72', Tomasov M. ↓, Zhaksylykov N. ↑,
72', Gripshi N. ↓, Beysebekov A. ↑,
75', Beysebekov A. 🟨,
77', Mouanga K. ↓, Abdallah H. ↑,
83', Geoffrey C. ↓, Karimov R. ↑,
83', Vorogovskiy Y. ↓, Shomko D. ↑,
86', Ebong M. 🟨,
89', Diakite G. ↓, Ajdini A. ↑,
90+2', N'Diaye S. 🟨,

Preview

1st leg result: 1-3. 2nd leg.

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

Astana may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Lausanne-Sport has had a series of home games.

Astana might have a minor edge in this game.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Astana won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 1:3.

Last Results with these Odds

Lausanne-Sport - the odds 2.6 are the expected chance of winning is 34.98%, but this team recently wins 44% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Astana
UEFA Europa Conference League
07.08.25	Lausanne-Sport - Astana	3:1 ✺
31.07.25	Zimbru Chişinău - Astana	0:2 ✺
24.07.25	Astana - Zimbru Chişinău	1:1 ✺
Kazakh Premier League
18.07.25	Astana - Turan Turkistan	7:0 ✺
13.07.25	Ordabasy - Astana	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.1 LWTWL
- Lausanne-Sport
Swiss Super League
10.08.25	Lausanne-Sport - Zürich	1:2 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
07.08.25	Lausanne-Sport - Astana	3:1 ✺
Swiss Super League
03.08.25	Thun - Lausanne-Sport	2:1 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
31.07.25	Lausanne-Sport - Vardar	5:0 ✺
Swiss Super League
27.07.25	Lausanne-Sport - Winterthur	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.7 LWLWW

Latest Head to Head

UEFA Europa Conference League
07.08.25	Lausanne-Sport - Astana	3:1

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