Match Info

Serie B - Round 8

Date: 9 May 2026, Saturday

Location: Estádio Joaquim Portugal (Minas Gerais)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Disney+


	Athletic Club		Cuiabá

	1	X	2
	2.65	2.7	3.1	Watch
	2.35	2.9	3
	2.58	2.72	3	Watch
	2.84	2.79	3.1
	2.62	2.61	3.35	Watch
	2.63	2.63	3
	2.65	2.73	2.98	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.62 ↑ (2.39)	2.73 ↓ (2.8)	3.08 ↓ (3.25)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.75

The best margin for this event is 3.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Athletic Club
35.6%

Draw
34.2%

Cuiabá
30.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

38.6%

33%

28.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

39.3%

32.4%

27.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Athletic Club has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3%)

Cuiabá has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Athletic Club than the current prediction. (+3.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Cuiabá than the current prediction. (-2.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	50%	50%

Athletic Club - Cuiabá Predictions

Users Predictions: 6 users predict this event. Cuiabá will win (votes: 3 - 50%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Luan Polli (G) 22. Diogo Batista 3. Jhonatan Silva 4. Belezi 6. Zeca (C) 16. Joao Miguel 15. Jota 18. Pedro Oliveira 17. Kauan Rodrigues 20. Gabriel Moyses 11. Max	31. Marcelo Carne (G) 13. Joao Basso 44. Gabriel Knesowitsch 14. Eric Melo 37. Raylan 5. Calebe Costa 30. Raul (C) 6. Marlon 41. Kauan Cristtyan 8. Pepe 27. Rodrigo Rodrigues
Substitutes
19. Alexandre Pena 7. Bruninho 8. Cabezas G. 2. Douglas Pele 13. Felipe Vieira 26. Glauco (G) 10. Gustavinho 14. Gustavo Morais 12. Jhonatan Luiz (G) 23. Kauan Lindes 9. Samuel Otusanya 21. Vera D.	7. Asad Y. 49. Joao Araujo 1. Joao Carlos (G) 91. Luis Soares 19. Mateus Santos 2. Nino Paraiba 17. Victor Barbara 29. Vinicius Peixoto 53. Weverson
Coaches
Alex Souza	Barros E.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
45+2', Eric Melo 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
54', Max ↓, Bruninho ↑,
54', Gabriel Moyses ↓, Samuel Otusanya ↑,
61', Rodrigo Rodrigues ↓, Asad Y. ↑,
61', Eric Melo ↓, Luis Soares ↑,
65', Kauan Rodrigues 🟨,
65', Joao Basso 🟨,
68', Kauan Cristtyan ↓, Vinicius Peixoto ↑,
75', Pedro Oliveira ↓, Cabezas G. ↑,
77', Bruninho 🟨,
82', Pepe ↓, Weverson ↑,
82', Kauan Rodrigues ↓, Vera D. ↑,
82', Jota ↓, Gustavinho ↑,
87', Belezi 🟨,

Preview

Enjoy a game between evenly matched mid-table sides (ranked 13 and 15).

Athletic is currently in poor form (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Cuiabá has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

There will not play in Athletic: Gabriel Indio (Inactive) Ian Luccas (Red Card) Rodrigo Gelado (Inactive) Ruan Assis (Inactive) Sidimar (Inactive) Tavares R. (Inactive)

There will not play in Cuiabá: Alan Empereur (Inactive) David Miguel (Yellow Cards)

There are questionable in Cuiabá: Hernades (Injury) Vitor Mendes (Injury)

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Athletic won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 1:4. (average 0.5:2).

Including home match between the teams, Athletic won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:2.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
10	Cuiaba	32	11	14	7	32:25	7	47
14	Athletic Club	32	10	12	10	38:37	1	42

Last Results with these Odds

Athletic Club - the odds 2.39 are the expected chance of winning is 38.6%, but this team recently wins 14% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Athletic Club MG
Brazilian Serie B
04.05.26	Vila Nova - Athletic Club	1:1 ✺
27.04.26	Athletic Club - Náutico Capibaribe	0:1 ✺
Copa do Brasil
22.04.26	Athletic Club - Internacional RS	1:2 ✺
Brazilian Serie B
19.04.26	Grêmio Novorizontino - Athletic Club	2:1 ✺
12.04.26	CRB Maceio - Athletic Club	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.8 TLLLW
- Cuiabá EC
Brazilian Serie B
02.05.26	Cuiabá - Criciúma	1:1 ✺
Brazilian Copa Centro Oeste
29.04.26	Anápolis - Cuiabá	4:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie B
22.04.26	Cuiabá - Botafogo SP	1:1 ✺
19.04.26	Goiás - Cuiabá	0:2 ✺
Brazilian Copa Centro Oeste
15.04.26	Cuiabá - Porto Vitória	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.8 TLTWL

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie B
28.09.25	Cuiabá - Athletic Club	2:1
31.05.25	Athletic Club - Cuiabá	0:2

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