Match Info

Serie B - Round 7

Date: 4 May 2026, Monday

Location: Estádio Onésio Brasileiro Alvarenga (Goiânia)

Referee: de Lima M. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Disney+


	Vila Nova		Athletic Club

	1	X	2
	1.91	3.2	4.1	Watch
	1.77	3.4	4.2
	1.95	3.1	4.05	Watch
	2.02	3.21	4.56
	1.94	3.24	4.18	Watch
	1.95	3	3.9
	1.91	3.2	4.27	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.92 ↑ (1.77)	3.19 ↓ (3.38)	4.18 ↓ (4.76)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 2.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Vila Nova
48.5%

Draw
29.2%

Athletic Club
22.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

52.8%

27.6%

19.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

53.6%

27.2%

19.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Vila Nova has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.3%)

Athletic Club has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Vila Nova than the current prediction. (+5.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Vila Nova, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Athletic Club than the current prediction. (-3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
75%	12.5%	12.5%

Vila Nova - Athletic Club Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Vila Nova will win (votes: 6 - 75%). Athletic will win (votes: 1 - 12.5%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 12.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Vila Nova: 45% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Vila Nova (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Helton Leite (G) 22. Hayner 3. Tiago Pagnussat 14. Anderson Jesus 6. Higor 15. Dudu 5. Joao Vieira 11. Ryan 10. Marquinhos Gabriel (C) 99. Janderson 9. Rafa Silva	1. Luan Polli (G) 16. Joao Miguel 3. Jhonatan Silva 4. Belezi 2. Douglas Pele 5. Ian Luccas 15. Jota 6. Zeca (C) 17. Kauan Rodrigues 11. Max 9. Samuel Otusanya
Substitutes
33. Bruno Xavier 38. Caio Marcelo 29. Dalberson (G) 49. Dellatorre 21. Dodo 2. Elias 18. Enzo Bizzotto 20. Nathan Camargo 4. Pedro Romano 23. Samuel Lucas 13. Willian Formiga 8. Willian Maranhao	19. Alexandre Pena 7. Bruninho 8. Cabezas G. 22. Diogo Batista 13. Felipe Vieira 20. Gabriel Moyses 10. Gustavinho 14. Gustavo Morais 12. Jhonatan Luiz (G) 18. Pedro Oliveira 21. Vera D.
Coaches
Guto Ferreira	Alex Souza

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
23', Douglas Pele 🟨,
45+1', Hayner 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Samuel Otusanya ↓, Gabriel Moyses ↑,
53', Ian Luccas 🟥,
54', Max ↓, Felipe Vieira ↑,
58', Rafa Silva ↓, Enzo Bizzotto ↑,
58', Hayner ↓, Dellatorre ↑,
70', 1 - 0, Dellatorre ⚽, Marquinhos Gabriel (A),
71', Jota ↓, Pedro Oliveira ↑,
71', Douglas Pele ↓, Diogo Batista ↑,
78', Zeca ↓, Bruninho ↑,
79', Felipe Vieira 🟨,
80', Janderson 🟨,
83', Tiago Pagnussat ↓, Pedro Romano ↑,
83', Dudu ↓, Elias ↑,
87', 1 - 1, Bruninho ⚽,
88', Bruninho 🟨,

Preview

One team leads the standings, the other sits mid-table (ranked 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie B (Promotion ~ Play Offs: Final) and 13).

Vila Nova is currently in amazing form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Athletic's performance has dropped in recent matches (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

In this match, Vila Nova is a strong favorite.

There will not play in Vila Nova: Emerson Urso (Inactive)

There will not play in Athletic: Rodrigo Gelado (Inactive) Sidimar (Inactive)

There are questionable in Vila Nova: Dellatorre (Inactive)

There are questionable in Athletic: Gabriel Indio (Inactive) Ruan Assis (Inactive)

We predict that Vila Nova will win today's game, with odds of 1.78.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Vila Nova won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:1. (average 1:0.5).

Including home match between the teams, Vila Nova won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:1.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
2	Vila Nova FC	32	17	7	8	44:31	13	58
14	Athletic Club	32	10	12	10	38:37	1	42

Last Results with these Odds

Vila Nova - the odds 1.77 are the expected chance of winning is 52.76%, but this team recently wins 67% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Vila Nova FC
Brazilian Copa Centro Oeste
29.04.26	Araguaína - Vila Nova	1:2 ✺
Brazilian Serie B
26.04.26	Ceará - Vila Nova	3:3 ✺
18.04.26	Vila Nova - Operário Ferroviario	2:1 ✺
Brazilian Copa Centro Oeste
15.04.26	Vila Nova - Capital CF Ltda	0:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie B
11.04.26	Ponte Preta - Vila Nova	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 23 WTWTW
- Athletic Club MG
Brazilian Serie B
27.04.26	Athletic Club - Náutico Capibaribe	0:1 ✺
Copa do Brasil
22.04.26	Athletic Club - Internacional RS	1:2 ✺
Brazilian Serie B
19.04.26	Grêmio Novorizontino - Athletic Club	2:1 ✺
12.04.26	CRB Maceio - Athletic Club	2:3 ✺
05.04.26	Athletic Club - América Mineiro	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.2 LLLWT

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie B
08.09.25	Vila Nova - Athletic Club	1:1
06.05.25	Athletic Club - Vila Nova	0:1

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