Match Info

Segunda RFEF - Promotion Play Offs - Final

Date: 31 May 2026, Sunday

Location: Estadio Balear (Palma)


	Atlético Baleares		Real Jaén

	1	X	2
	2.02	3.05	3.45
	2.05	3.14	3.85
	2.02	3.07	3.75	Watch
	1.95	3	3.5
	1.98	3.04	3.76
Avarage Now (Initially)	2 ↑ (1.95)	3.06 ↓ (3.2)	3.66 ↓ (3.76)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 6.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Atlético Baleares
45.4%

Draw
29.7%

Real Jaén
24.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

47%

28.6%

24.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

50.3%

26.7%

22.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Atlético Baleares has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.6%)

Real Jaén has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Atlético Baleares than the current prediction. (+4.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Real Jaén than the current prediction. (-2.1%)

Atlético Baleares - Real Jaén Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
12', 1 - 0, Tovar J. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
Extra Time (0 - 2)
99', 1 - 1, Siverio M. ⚽,
105', 1 - 2, Carrillo J. ⚽,

Preview

First leg result: 1-2.

Baleares is in fantastic form, winning most of its recent matches (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Jaén is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Baleares will hold a modest advantage in this match.

Recently, the teams have not faced each other.

Last Results with these Odds

Atlético Baleares - the odds 1.95 are the expected chance of winning is 46.99%, but this team recently wins 56% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Atlético Baleares
Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 1
17.05.26	Atlético Baleares - Coruxo	1:1 ✺
10.05.26	Coruxo - Atlético Baleares	0:3 ✺
Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 3
02.05.26	Espanyol B - Atlético Baleares	0:1 ✺
26.04.26	Atlético Baleares - Terrassa	3:1 ✺
19.04.26	Porreres - Atlético Baleares	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.6 TWWWW
- Real Jaén
Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 1
17.05.26	Alavés B - Real Jaén	0:2 ET ✺
10.05.26	Real Jaén - Alavés B	1:2 ✺
Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 4
03.05.26	Real Jaén - Antoniano	1:1 ✺
26.04.26	UCAM Murcia - Real Jaén	1:2 ✺
19.04.26	Real Jaén - Puente Genil	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 17.3 WLTWW

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