Match Info

PORTUGAL: Liga 3 - Promotion Group - Round 9

Date: 13 April 2024, Saturday

Where to Watch on TV:


Portugal	Canal 11


	Atlético CP		Alverca

	1	X	2
	3.4	3	2
	3.5	3.1	2.05
	4.05	3.14	2.06
	4.05	3.14	2.06
	4.01	3.14	1.95
	3.45	3.1	2
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.74 ↓ (5.76)	3.1 ↓ (3.42)	2.02 ↑ (1.59)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 5.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Atlético CP
24.6%

Draw
29.7%

Alverca
45.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

15.8%

26.7%

57.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

15.5%

26.2%

58.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Atlético CP has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Atlético CP's performance.

Alverca has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-11.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Alverca might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Atlético CP than the current prediction. (-9.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Atlético CP that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Alverca than the current prediction. (+13%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Alverca could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
20%	20%	60%

Atlético CP - Alverca Predictions

Users Predictions: 5 users predict this event. Atlético CP will win (votes: 1 - 20%). Alverca will win (votes: 3 - 60%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 20%).

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
70. Pinhao N. (G) 23. Almeida B. 9. Balotelli 6. Costa J. 29. Dinamite D. 26. Freitas J. 8. Goncalves Ferreira F. G. 21. Morgado T. 31. Paulinho 48. Pipas Filipe 17. Silva D.	98. Joao Bravim (G) 17. Costa J. 25. Dias R. 6. Luiz Miguel 88. Martins D. 4. Oliveira A. 16. Pires M. 19. Silva R. 33. Venaque 90. Vitor Bruno 5. Ze Oliveira (C)

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 2)
15', 0 - 1, Martins D. ⚽,
19', Dinamite D. ↓, Jesus J. ↑,
23', Freitas J. 🟨,
33', 0 - 2, Costa J. ⚽,
35', Morgado T. 🟨,
45+2', Freitas J. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 2)
50', 0 - 3, Costa J. ⚽,
56', Vitor Bruno ↓, Lucas J. ↑,
61', Pipas Filipe ↓, Horta Leitao D. ↑,
61', Silva D. ↓, Pinto P. ↑,
64', 0 - 4, Dias R. ⚽, Lucas J. (A),
66', Costa J. ↓, Hachadi K. ↑,
66', Dias R. ↓, Varela J. ↑,
76', Jesus J. 🟨,
76', Pires M. ↓, Iago Oliveira ↑,
76', Luiz Miguel ↓, Vitinho ↑,
78', Goncalves Ferreira F. G. ↓, Marcelo P. ↑,
78', Balotelli ↓, Martins T. ↑,

Preview

An outsider and one of the leaders will play in this match (ranked 8 and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga Portugal 2).

Atlético CP has a chain of defeats in the last matches (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Alverca is in super shape now and in the last match got series of victories (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

In this match Alverca is a favorite.

Last 4 head-to-head matches Atlético CP won 2 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 5-4.

Including matches at home between the teams Atlético CP won 2 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 4-1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Atlético CP
Portuguese Liga 3
07.04.24	Felgueiras - Atlético CP	2:0 ✺
31.03.24	Atlético CP - Braga B	0:2 ✺
17.03.24	Lusitânia - Atlético CP	3:1 ✺
10.03.24	Atlético CP - Académica Coimbra	1:3 ✺
02.03.24	Covilhã - Atlético CP	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.5 LLLLT
- FC Alverca
Portuguese Liga 3
06.04.24	Alverca - Braga B	1:0 ✺
31.03.24	Alverca - Lusitânia	3:1 ✺
16.03.24	Académica Coimbra - Alverca	0:0 ✺
09.03.24	Alverca - Covilhã	1:0 ✺
02.03.24	Varzim - Alverca	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 17 WWTWW

Latest Head to Head

Portuguese Liga 3
18.02.24	Alverca - Atlético CP	2:0
07.01.24	Atlético CP - Alverca	3:1
Taça de Portugal
24.09.23	Atlético CP - Alverca	1:0 penalties
Portuguese Liga 3
17.09.23	Alverca - Atlético CP	1:1

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